Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[hk2]

Your original roadmap had the first leg down ending at 1363 with a run to 1400. Beginning to wonder if it's back in play {G}
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I cannot remember that kind of scenario, do you have a post?




From #msg-647289 (the portion I was referring to is posted below) When we didn't get the double top as high as you expected, these numbers were adjusted downward 50/60 points in #msg-708849

From the original Road Map:

Road Map:

We have already had our first top (from the July/October lows) at about 1520 (and 9076 on the Dow) earlier this month. I still expect a possible second high more than 200 Naz points from were we closed the year, maybe as high as 1550 (maybe as late as the fourth week in January, nominal high is now 1537, nominal high on Dow here just around 9100). Such a double top, but on the surface, a breach of the December highs, should bring bullish sentiments to an extreme even worse than it is now and technically should satisfy the formation of a distributive double top. That should set us up for a grand two, maybe three steps, Nassacre lasting possibly till late June, interrupted by a major upleg, after the first six weeks or so of the first decline (about mid March, coinciding with "visibility" of "victory" in Iraq). Nominally, I have the first leg down as a decline from 1537 to 1263 by 3/19. The model for the Dow does not have such a sharp decline, only to around 8500/8650. That is followed by a sharp "victory" bounce (also dictated by other parameters, though) to just under 1400 (nominal 1391 and around 9300 for the Dow) ending around 4/15-22 (the timing of this bounce was tough for the model and some versions have it only 2 weeks long some 5 weeks long). The next leg down is about 300 Naz points, to around 1100 (nominal new low), but it is not clear now if we breach harshly or not, it really depends on the late April behavior. If the bounce does not even get close to 1400, we may drop much below 1100 (possibly to 950). The second "imponderable" is whether we have a late May bounce into memorial day (5/26). No dates for that low right now. If 1100 holds for the Naz, I doubt the Dow goes much lower than 7900.

If by the end of next week we did not have at least one Dow day up 300 and one Naz day up 40, I may have to scrap this model and go back to the drawing board. Note that for the time being the 950 for the Naz and the 6000 for the Dow are delayed "indefinitely", this secular bear has more legs to it in the next few years.