A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[Conrad]

Hi Fuzzy, I take your remarks one by one:

While I see some issues with Ocroft's method they are not as bad as you suggest.

I did not in any way suggest that Ocrofts Methods were bad! In fact with many methods that people understand and if they pick the stock well, they can do very well indeed! There is nothing wrong with the method. It simply has weak points just like AIMing has;

1) He identifies a stock he wants

Perfect!!!!
Many people in The Herd buy what they are told to buy by The Herd

2) He pretends he buys it and pretends he buys more on each AIM directed buy

Perfect! I understand! He is one of the few that knows what to do

3) When it moves up in to the hold zone (after a directed buy) or the actual first sell (I forget which) he then institutes an AIM directed buy

Perfect! I understand!!! He knows what he is doing! It does not matter that you forgot And my take on it is that it does not matter. . . At a big Drop he might as well put in the Full Amount he allocated to the Portfolio(20000) or he could decide to only put in the 10000 if he would have faith that at a price of 20 if he would still consider the stock worth buying. . .That is one of my Golden Rules: Only buy stoks that are worth buying. . .If that is the case a low price is a bonus!
If however the price reversal would have occurred at about 70 the I suspect Ocroft would execute approximately an Accumulated AIM Buy, or simply throw in 5000 as a reasonable amount. . .Between 1995 and 2000 I made a LOT of money with AIMing just like that: I did not use the AIM-formula and neither the Vortex-Formula. I Eye-balled all of it and made load of profit!

4) If a stock reverses and goes back down, you wait again to purchase more till it goes up.

Unless, of course, at the First Bottom (+ Hick-Up at the Buy Point) all the Reserve Money has been used up for buying. . .or that may have happened at the 2nd or 3rd Bottom(+Hick-Up). Eventually if the stock keeps dropping and recovering with a buy resulting at every hick-up then for every man there comes a point he can not or want not to buy more. . . and then comes the time to either Bail Out or to hope for a Recovery in the future. . .At such points Algorithms are of little use and a Judgement Call will have to be executed.

5) You wait to sell anything till it goes down from a high instead of selling along the way.


People on this Forum . . .would all have a bone or two to pick on this Wait to Sell at the Bottom ???? It’s much better to Buy at the Bottom . . .unless one is Bailing Out