Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[floblu14]

FWIW - not much

UBS Securities analyst Ami Fadia downgraded rating on shares of Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:MNTA) to "Neutral" from "Buy" with $15 price target, saying she still sees long-term value but limited near-term catalysts.

Fadia said with the recent negative court ruling in the Copaxone case the company would remain in a cash burn position of about $1.20 per share/year for the foreseeable future. Momenta will need to tap into its about $7.50 per share cash balance until it can launch generic Copaxone in September 2015 (assuming approval).

The analyst said upside should come from better visibility into the pipeline; however, it is still early stage and she sees limited near-term upside. Separately, she is updating numbers for 2Q-2012 sales reported by Novartis which raises her 2Q-2012/2012 EPS by $0.12 and $0.38, respectively, and had a ripple effect in the outer years.

Fadia still believes that Momenta will eventually get approval and launch generic Copaxone in 2015, which she value at about $5 per share but this is well understood. [How about $10+ per share proving MNTA's technological expertise.]

While the follow-on biologics program is promising, it is still in the very early stages of development and she is unlikely to get visibility into its progress for some time. The analyst said Momenta is likely to remain in a cash burn position in the near term.

The brokerage narrowed its 2012 loss per share estimate to $0.73 from $1.11 and its 2013 loss estimate to $1.02 from $1.22. Fadia expects profits beginning in 2015.

Fadia said she may consider becoming more constructive on the name as she gets better visibility into the follow-on biologics pipeline and FDA's requirements for approval. Separately, if Momenta wins its appeal on the Enoxaparin case (decision expected mid/late 2013) this could provide upside to the stock.

http://www.istockanalyst.com/finance/story/5953357/momenta-pharma-mnta-downgraded-to-neutral-by-ubs-securities