Value Microcaps Motherboard

[Bobwins]

HA is in an industry that has consistently lost money. Oil prices took a nose dive but have rallied back in July. Fuel is the biggest cost factor for an airline so while it's a positive for the end of Q2, the current trend is negative for airlines.

In addition to these factors, Hawaiian has a seasonality that is exaggerated compared to other bigger airlines. That seasonality will lead to an outsize Q3 but it is not sustainable so Q4 and beyond will fall from Q3 levels until next year. I expect that year over year comparisons will continue to be favorable because of the new routes HA is adding but pricing a seasonal company is more difficult.

The market is so skittish, I'm sure they will need upside surprises in both Q2 and 3 to send HA decisively up. I am optimistic but will wait for Mr. Market to tell me what he thinks.