A few years ago a group of us on SI, back tested Vector Vest and found the results to be very good. It was the Vector Vest analysis that got me into EASI, my most profitable trader for years. BTW, it did hit VectorVests' price target for it, at that time.
EnCana is hardly undiscovered, and has had a huge move already.
However, after reading this Vector Vest analysis, I think, with Winter coming on and an administration highly funded by the Energy group, This may go into my IRA on any decent dip.
Thought, I'd post the analysis for you guys and see what you think:
VectorVest Stock Analysis of EnCana Corp
Analysis Summary
ECA is undervalued compared to its Price of $50.95 per share, has about average safety, and is currently rated a Buy. Below you'll find a detailed analysis based on the VectorVest system.
In-Depth Analysis
Business: ENCANA CORP, (ECA) explores, develops, produces and markets natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids in Canada. Conducts extensive exploration and development activities, primarily in Western Canada, where the great majority of its reserves are located.
Price: ECA closed on 9/14/2005 at $50.94 per share
Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. ECA has a current Value of $77.94 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $50.94 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.
RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. ECA has an RV of 1.47, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.
RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. ECA has an RS rating of 1.04, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.
RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. ECA has a Relative Timing rating of 1.38, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.
VST (VST-Vector): VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. ECA has a VST rating of 1.31, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.
CI (Comfort Index): CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines. ECA has a CI rating of 1.77, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. CI is quite different from RS in that it is based solely upon a stock's long-term price history. VectorVest advocates the purchase of high CI stocks.
GRT (Earnings Growth Rate): GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. ECA has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 22.00%, which VectorVest considers to be excellent. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data. It is updated each week for every stock in the VectorVest database. GRT often foretells a stock's future price trend. If a stock's GRT trend is upward, the stock's price will likely rise. If GRT is trending downward, the stock's Price will probably fall. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks whose GRT is rising and is greater than the sum of current inflation and interest rates, (8.59%).
Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. ECA has a Buy recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.
Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position. ECA has a Stop of $44.45 per share. This is $5.07 below ECA's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.
EPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. ECA has a forecasted EPS of $3.56 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings. ECA has a P/E of 13.91. This ratio may be deemed to be high or low depending upon your frame of reference. The average P/E of all the stocks in the VectorVest database is 27.36. P/E is computed daily using the formula: P/E = Price/EPS.
EY (Earnings Yield): EY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. EY is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. ECA has an EY of 7.18 percent. This is above the current average of 3.67% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. EY equals 100 x (EPS/Price).
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. ECA has a GPE rating of 1.58. High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 5.39%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.29. Therefore, ECA may be considered to be undervalued.
DIV (Dividend): VectorVest reports annual, regular, cash dividends as indicated by the most recent payments. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., are not generally included in DIV. ECA pays a dividend of $0.3 per share.
DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. ECA has a Dividend Yield of 0.6%. This is below to the current average of 1.3% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. DY equals 100 x (DIV/Price). It is useful to compare DY with EY. If DY is not significantly lower than EY, the dividend payment may be in jeopardy.
DS (Dividend Safety): DS is an indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. ECA has a Dividend Safety of 74 , which is good on a scale of 0 to 99. Stocks with DS values above 75 typically have RS values well above 1.00 and EY levels that are much higher than DY.
DG (Dividend Growth Rate): Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's financial performance. It also provides some insight into the board's outlook on the company's ability to increase earnings. ECA has a Dividend Growth of 8% This is above the current average of 3% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database.
YSG (YSG-Vector): YSG is an indicator which combines DIV, DY and DG into a single value, and allows direct comparison of all dividend-paying stocks in the database. ECA has a YSG rating of 0.96, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. Stocks with the highest YSG values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.
AvgVol: AvgVol is the 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest. ECA has an AvgVol of 2,657,800 shares traded per day.
%Vol: %Vol reflects the percent change in today's trading volume as compared to the AvgVol. %Vol equals ((Volume - AvgVol) / AvgVol ) * 100. ECA had a %Vol of 0.87% on 9/12/2005
Sales: ECA has annual sales of $12,770,000,000
Sales Growth: Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. ECA has a Sales Growth of 40.00% per year. This is excellent. Sales Growth is updated each week for every stock. It is often useful to compare Sales Growth to Earnings Growth to gain an insight into a company's operations.
Sales Per Share (SPS): ECA has annual sales of $14.85 per share. SPS can be used as a measure of valuation when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Price to Sales Ratio (P/S): ECA has a P/S of 3.34. This ratio is also used as a measure of valuation. Here, too, it is useful when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Shares: ECA has 860,000,000 shares of stock outstanding.
Market Capitalization: ECA has a Market Capitalization of $42,597,000,000. Market Capitalization is calculated by multiplying price times shares outstanding.
Industry Group: ECA has been assigned to the Petroleum (Cdn Expl\Prd) Industry Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
Business Sector: ECA has been assigned to the Petroleum Business Sector. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy Low risk, High reward stocks. We suggest that Prudent investors buy enough High Relative Value, High Relative Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and RS ratings of their portfolios above 1.00. As you do this, you'll find that your risk will go down and your investment performance will improve.
Fred
AI
