In Zeev's Honor, Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan

[brightness]

I doubt very much Americans would have the Confucian slavishness to put up with another 13 years, like Japanese have been doing. There are cultural reasons why Americans do not "stay the course" when things go wrong, like many Asian countries keep on doing until their economies literally fall apart. American tolerance for politician misbehavior is much less.

IMHO the economy will bottom in 5 years or so. The most likely ways out is either something like Reagan and Volcker's re-injection of confidence and government shrinking . . . or systemic abrogation of foreign debt burden (through massive inflation or voiding). The two ways may not even be mutually exclusive, as someone like Reagan and Volcker couldn't have had the political support that they did until things went really under their predecessors, by American standards, which are a lot tighter/demanding than Japanese.

There is a small chance of another technological breakthrough like we did in the 1990's, which would put off the reckoning by another decade or two.