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Re: biomaven0 post# 145293

Tuesday, 07/10/2012 11:55:54 PM

Tuesday, July 10, 2012 11:55:54 PM

Post# of 257264

It's a big mistake in my view to look at a p/e (or its inverse, the earnings yield) divorced from the prevailing long term interest rate.



That surely is the prevailing wisdom. But the ten year was under 3% from 1935 to 1956 (see http://www.multpl.com/interest-rate/table). During that period, p/e's were relatively low. So I continue to be worried that we are nowhere near a market bottom of the nature of 1975 or 1982. That said, I am pretty fully invested under the theory that I cannot call tops and bottoms any better than the "professionals."

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