Orbite ORT.TO
The only person I've read who is negative on Orbite is Jon Hykawy at Byron Capital (who has a 'sell' rating on it and a $0.90 target). I don't pretend to understand the technical arguments of his but he feels Orbite is being way too aggressive with their claims and that their timeline is not realistic. Not that they can't ever make it work but he feels they're planning for perfect execution on everything which rarely happens. So he feels it's overvalued for his short-term investing horizon.
His issues are partly as follows:
"In our coverage of Orbite Aluminae, we have given voice to three major concerns about Orbite Aluminae’s Grande-Vallée project. In no particular order, those concerns are:
1. The rare earth and rare metal prices used in the PEA to determine revenue were unduly optimistic;
2. While inexpensive natural gas is used to power the project, there is no energy fuel source readily available at the project site; and
3. The technology risk in the project, in our opinion, requires the use of a higher discount rate than the 5% or 10% typically used in PEA’s for gold or copper projects. Indeed, in this report we raise another technology risk point for investor consideration, namely the impact that the circulating fluid bed calciner may have on the project."
Is he right? I don't have the expertise to know but I would hope Rusal and Nalco have an idea.
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