Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[jbog]

All told, therefore, I think a reasonably person can justify a regulatory-success probability in the 10-15% range. Optimists can probably get to a 20-25% figure based on MNTA’s track record, while pessimists who focus on the dire history of drug candidates in pancreatic cancer can arrive at a number in the single digits. Thus, there’s a wide of plausible figures, but I’m inclined to go with 10-15% for modeling purposes until more concrete data are available.

When the onco success rate is only 4.7%, I can't see why you're giving Momenta 3x (10-15%) the probability. Given that their drug concept is not even proven at this point, I would give them lower than published odds.