Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[viking86]

Treit: acc to my recent analysis (would be nice if you could verify the calc):

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=76544052&txt2find=weighted

currently about 79m shares are outstanding (OS) but the weighted avg O/S (WAOS) is only about 69.4m including 7m shares to be retired until EOY. Since they have announced WAOS to be b/w 70.5- 73.5m, we may see max 4m more weighted shares, or at least 8m new shares until EOY and we will still be good with the 73.5m WAOS statement.

Also, they targeted 83m I/O by EOY vs. currently 79m. So I am thinking they are probably considering to issue only 4m additional shares (of the 8m allowable) for the remainder of the year, or max 2m weighted if these are issued by June 30. If that's the case, we may see a WAOS of 69.4m+ 2m= 71.4m shares for the year. It could be less if the 4m shares are issued later than June 30.

So I do not think we are done with the dilution yet. But the additional dilution will be relatively small, max 4-5m shares, for 2012.

Otherwise I agree with you that their plan is to create max momentum this year in order to reach critical mass by 2014 (rev of at least 0.5 Bill) in order to spin off one sub after another starting 2014. It will be absolutely critical for them to achieve 145m rev this year (from 52m in 2011) and about 280-300m rev next year in order to meet that goal, hence the controlled dilution until 2013.

I was sitting in an airplane yday and listening to the engines howling as they were being revved up just before the plane started to race down the runway for the final take off. I think we are witnessing that moment right now with the takeoff (spinoff) happening in 2014.