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Re: vinnybotz post# 4447

Tuesday, 06/19/2012 9:06:38 PM

Tuesday, June 19, 2012 9:06:38 PM

Post# of 30991
I have been loading calls as well, but am working out of my in-the-money August calls and into November calls (I still have some July and August calls that are out of the money as short term speculations).

My reasoning is that August options expire BEFORE RAI has to come to the table for mediation. We COULD see a settlement before August expiration, but I would not be surprised to see this go all the way to that session before there is a settlement. The Novembers are a little more expensive (though there is surprisingly little time premium on the in the money calls i.e. the 3's) but give me exposure to whatever happens in the mandated settlement talks in late August.

One other thought here - CIGX is the kind of stock that looks like a perfect target for a bear raid--big short position, binary event coming. I think such a bear raid is very likely. If I were short, the time frame right before August expiry is one window I would have in mind. I'd rather not be in the position where the calendar can be used against me within a week of the settlement talks.

If I could afford to buy all of them, I would not need to buy any of them and I sure wouldn't be spending time on the message boards!

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