Quite a long post here. Get a nice cup of coffee first.
So, I think everything is just fine. We really showed a lot of strength today in the face of some determined selling. We all know that nothing goes straight up endlessly without a breather, and I always said we could revisit the .20s. But, I also said that we would bounce if we did... and, we did. I think we recovered very nicely today!
Yes, we did very briefly touch .24, and I admit I am a bit surprised (irrational panic-selling can cause surprises!) In a recent post I called for a "strong bounce no lower than .28", and as you know we did dip lower today. However, we did rebound to the .27/28 range literally only minutes after hitting that low, and then began steadily grinding upward. So I think everything worked out pretty well, and my assumption that we would bounce hard on a drop to the .20s was fairly accurate.. but, I did underestimate how much money some people would be willingly to irrationally throw away with market sell orders and shorts.
Brief spikes can of course occur during heavy trading, but in my opinion open/close levels are much more significant than intraday highs/lows. These spikes can take price action outside of well-defined channels or below support, but if the close is still within the channel or above support then I do not consider this to be a break of a trend/support.
This action today was quite similar to what we saw when we were hovering at .20 in early May -- a brief spike below .20 down to .16, followed by a nice recovery and a close at a higher-than-expected level (in my opinion, at least -- today I was looking for .30 even.)
So, where did that ".28" level come from that I mentioned? Several facts: The .275/.28 level was where we saw several significant highs/lows in recent months, and .275 is also a 50% fibo retractment off our recent high of .35. The 50MA is also about .28 now. So, that adds up to a lot of support. .275 was probably more accurate, but then again things don't always line up perfectly to the sub-penny level... so I typically just round it.
So, these unexpected spikes do happen. No matter how much time myself or another spends on analysis there will always be times where something a bit surprising can occur. I am more focused on the long-term, rather than what may occur on a day to day to basis, and so I still feel we will be leaving the .20s behind for good soon (again, close today was extremely strong.)
As for my analysis record, I think I've done pretty well so far. I called .20 as the bottom. I said that if we broke the downtrends I identified then we would likely move upwards, or sideways at worst. Basically, the analysis said "buy all you can in the .20s", and I think that worked out pretty well.
So, we're still looking very good, and we will give the 200MA another shot very soon.
(This post turned out to be a lot longer than I expected!)
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