Richard Russell Dow Theory Letters 13 February, 2003
Extracted from the 12 February 2003 issue of Richard Russell's Dow Theory Remarks
February 12, 2003 -- Watta week -- and it isn't over yet! A bin Laden tape urges all Muslims to defend Iraq and to engage in suicide attacks against the US. The Bushies claim that the Bin Laden tape proves that Iraq has joined with Al Qaeda. Greenspan double-crosses the Bushies by saying that yes, deficit do count -- and Good Lord, worse, Greenie is tepid on the Bush tax cuts. Qualcomm ( tech stock) makes headlines by declaring a nickel quarterly dividend. Gold corrects sharply as the Commercials are finally victorious. California joins New York and Louisiana with a lowly A2 credit rating. Mighty Harvey Weinstein cleans up with 40 Academy Award nominations for five films. Coca-Cola slumps to its lowest level since 1998. Suddenly, it dawns on the US that by far the greatest danger today is North Korea. The US is flooded with an overabundance of electric power and utilities swoon. The US goes on "orange" or is it "red" alert.
China joins France and Russia in opposing a war against Iraq. The March lumber contract suddenly has two limit-down moves. The CIA's director warns that a global nuclear arms race looms. And last but not least, the NATO crisis deepens the rift between the EU and Europe.
Other developments -- The London market breaks below last fall's lows, sinking to its lowest level since the summer of 1995, at which time the Dow was 4700 (London has a tendency to correlate with the NYSE). London, for the first time in its history, closes lower on ten consecutive days.
...And how about poor Ted Turner? He had $7 billion in AOL stock and now he's down to $1.6 billion. Yeah, he's still eating steak (well, buffalo meat), but it hurts. His billion dollar gift to the UN is now on hold. Jane Fonda is gone, but I hear Ted still escorts beautiful woman. Ah, I'm not worried about him, not at all.
Did'ja notice? Only one Gold related sentence! LOL! Between you and I, since, according to my detractors, no one reads my gold related %@$# anyway <ggg>, I couldn't be much more pleased with the colletive price action of the PM complex when measured against the 8% reducton in the COMEX gold futures OI. Unfortunately, my 'work' is now indicating that I won't be getting my hoped for $332/$337 PoG buying area. The PoG got to within $12 of the high side of area last night..... Dagnabit! Well, I guess I may as well wait to see what Hans has to say to the UN tomorrow..... I would think that "Iraqi premium" has become much more reasonable with this week's selloff.
Kudo's to you for the adroit reaping of your core shorts this morning.