Biotech Values

[iwfal]

CLDX -

If you take CLDX's name out and put a mid/big cap pharmas, everyone would be claiming blockbuster

I respectfully disagree. I agree it is good data for randomized ORR data. But that modifier (ORR data) is important - ORR often doesn't translate well up the clinical benefit ladder to PFS and then OS. (See, for instance, the roughly equivalent ORR data for ARRY's drug mapped to only an OS HR of 0.80 (preliminary data - but if had kept anywhere near the benefit seen in the ORR it would have been a LOT better)).

Also note that the treatment population, if everything goes well, is perhaps 15% of the BC market (assuming that trial entry criteria captured 50% (WAG) of the BC population - but only about 1/3 of that group were subgroups that showed efficacy.). So it isn't a huge market.


That said, I don't see the data as a disappointment either. So a drop in stock price is surprising.