I think the model is better, unfortunately, during bearish periods, last year Nassacre was "called" blow for blow as well the same with the February Massacre of 2001 (I had then "be out no later than 1:30 on January 30tht, for those having "long memories"). On the other hand, most of my bottom calls in the last three years have been premature by one to three weeks (except Sep 01, if you add 4 closure days to the forecast of 9/16). I have tried to correct for that premature entry stuff at bottoms, but so far, not with great success. I halso have problems with December, consistently poor calls for December three years running....
Zeev