Well, I don't disagree with the high probability of BK's. As you know, I set up a BUBBLE board for RE which suggests that as a very real consequence. However, I don't think it is necessary in order to have considerably lower demand - thus lower prices in oil. (Again, not gasoline prices or natural gas.)
I just posted an analysis of how I arrive at 2M bbl per day drop in the US on a serious recession. Here is the link.