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Saturday, May 12, 2012 4:02:42 PM
From Briefing.com: Weekly Recap - Week ending 11-May-12Failure to sustain a rebound left the stock market to suffer another loss, resulting in a weekly decline of a little more than 1%.
Worries about the health and the transparency of operations at diversified banks and financial services institutions were revived when JPMorgan Chase (JPM 36.96, -3.78), considered among the best in the business, announced that it has tagged $2 billion in trading losses. It mattered little to market participants that such a loss was partially offset by $1.0 billion in securities gains. The stock suffered its worst percentage drop late last summer, while the rest of the Financial sector surrendered 1.2%.
Adding to the negative tone were concerns about China’s economy rate after the country’s latest reading on retail sales and industrial production pointed to slower growth.
Participants responded to the stories by sending stocks lower at the open, but the major equity averages began to fight through the selling almost immediately. The effort was led by Tech, which climbed out of the red to a solid gain. It also helped the Nasdaq run ahead of its counterparts. Among Tech issues, semiconductor-related plays were particularly strong.
A surprise improvement in the Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan seemed to encourage traders to extend the bounce. The Survey reading of 77.8, marked an improvement from the 76.4 that had been posted in the prior month. It also bested the 76.0 that had been broadly expected.
The only other dose of data today was a surprise 0.2% decline in overall producer prices during April. The 0.2% increase in core producer prices was exactly what had been expected.
Although stocks were able to reverse their way out of the red, momentum was lost when the S&P 500 reached its prior session high. Its failure to extend past that point was followed by a steady decline, which left nearly every sector to settle in negative territory – Telecom scored the only gain of the session by putting together an impressive 1.2% advance with help from integrated telecom issues.
Action leading up to Friday was mostly weak, extending the price action at the end of the prior week. However, stocks scored their first meaningful gain in seven sessions on Thursday, but only after withstanding some late-day selling.
Focus during the day remained on Greece as leaders there worked to form a coalition government after there had been uncertainty surrounding the shape that the government would take following political impasse earlier in the week.
The latest weekly initial jobless claims count held steady slightly below 370,000, which is generally on par with the tally of 365,000 that had been generally expected. There is speculation that the elevated claims levels during the first three weeks of April were the result of seasonal adjustment biases and not a change in overall labor conditions. As such, there may be payroll growth in May that exceeds that of April, but possibly less than what was achieved during December through February.
Stocks started the week on a flat note. The lackluster action came amid an absence of data. Financials had offered leadership, but the broad market generally failed to follow. Tech stocks lagged.
Sellers attempted to reclaim control of stocks on Tuesday by driving the S&P 500 down more than 1% before it began to slash losses. The slide came amid concerns that the election of a Socialist to the Presidency of France and political impasse in Greece could carry implications for the direction of and commitment to austerity plans. Stocks began their recovery effort after the broad market was able to maintain a floor above levels set back in March.
Action on Tuesday took the Volatility Index up nearly 10% to trade above 20 for the first time in almost a month and then back to about 19 for an overall increase of less than 1%.
Concerns about the implications of political uncertainty in Greece persisted in mid-week trade. That saw the major equity averages drop in excess of 1% -- this time taking the S&P 500 within a few points of its March low -- but once again selling pressure eased and losses were reduced.
Sentiment was helped when the EFSF made it known that more than 5 billion euros will be available to Greece, despite the political impasse in the country. That didn’t fully eliminate worry about the exposure of Financials to tumult in the eurozone.
In response to revived concerns about eurozone conditions the euro retreated to a multi-month low around $1.29 this week. That helped lift the Dollar Index above its 50-day moving average. Including incrementally positive finishes, the dollar has advanced for 10 straight days against a basket of major foreign currencies. The greenback booked back-to-back weekly gains of 1.0%.
Earnings season is winding down, but this week still featured a few important players. Dow component Disney (DIS 45.56, +0.28) scored a strong gain that took shares to a 52-week high on the back of better-than-expected earnings.
Fellow blue chip Cisco Systems (CSCO 16.50, -0.31) plunged after the company’s upside earnings surprise was overshadowed by a disappointing forecast.
Macy’s (M 37.98, +0.15) posted an upside earnings surprise, as did Kohl's (KSS 48.18, -0.48), but shares of the latter were sold in response to a dissatisfying forecast. Earnings from Nordstrom (JWN 50.96, -2.57) missed the consensus estimate.
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA 41.81, -0.24) posted pleasing earnings. Toyota Motor (TM 80.71, +0.98) did, too, but its outlook proved mixed relative to what had been projected already by Wall Street.
ArcelorMittal (MT 16.01, -0.36) was also in the mixed. Its earnings missed the consensus estimate.
Most commodities were sold this week. As such, the CRB Index suffered a 1.0% drop on Friday and a 1.8% decline for the week. It has fallen in seven of the past eight sessions.
Among the more closely tracked commodities, crude oil prices fell 2.5% to a 2012 closing low of $96.03 per barrel. In stark contrast, natural gas prices climbed 10% during the course of trade this week to settle pit trade on Friday at $2.51 per MMBtu.
As for precious metals, gold prices fell to $1584 per ounce for a 3.7% weekly loss, while silver sank to $28.91 per ounce, feeding a 5.0% weekly loss. Treasuries attracted many looking to trim risk. Buying interest sent the yield on the 10-year Note fractionally below 1.80% for a multi-month low.
Auctions this week featured an offering of 3-year Notes that drew a bid-to-cover ratio of about 3.7, dollar demand of $116.8 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 35.7%. An offering of 10-year Notes drew a bid-to-cover of 2.9, dollar demand of $69.6 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 38.7%. An auction of 30-year Bonds drew a bid-to-cover of 2.7, an indirect bidder rate of 33.8%, and dollar demand of $43.6 billion.
..Nasdaq 100 +0.00%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +0.1%.
9:53AM Semiconductor Hldrs extends strong early run fills this week's gap at 33.23 to test 38% retrace of May decline at 33.28 -- session high 33.27 (SMH) 33.20 +0.33 : Top performing Semi names include: NVDA +9.8%, LRCX +1.8%, MRVL +1.7%, INTC +1.6%, ALTR +1.3%, XLNX +1.3%, BRCM +1%, LLTC +0.7%.
7:35AM NVIDIA reports Q1 EPS in-line with slight rev upside; guides Q2 revs above consensus with GM flat to up 200 bps QoQ (NVDA) 23.09 : Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $0.16 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate consensus of $0.16; revenues fell 3.9% year/year to $924.9 mln vs the $916.5 mln consensus, with non-GAAP GM -210 bps QoQ to 50.4%. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $990 mln - $1.05 bln vs. $979.11 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 51.5%, plus or minus one percentage point.
10:31 am : S&P Information Technology Index
The tech sector is trading higher today, ahead of gains in the broader market. Semiconductors are also showing relative strength with the Philly Semi Index trading 1.3% higher. NVDA (+8.3%) is a notable leader in that chip index. Among other major indices, the SPY is trading 0.2% higher today, while the QQQ is up 0.8% and the NASDAQ is trading 0.6% higher on the session. Among tech bellwethers, MSFT (+2.5%) is showing notable strength.
In earnings last night, BRKS (-3.1%) posted a beat, but guided lower, while NUAN (-0.2%) reported an inline qtr and raised guidance and CA (-1.1%) reported a beat and downside guidance. Also, INTC (+2.1%) reaffirmed guidance at its analyst day. This morning, NVDA (+8.1%) posted slight upside to its Q1 and guided above consensus. In news, there is a Bloomberg article that indicates institutional demand for FB IPO is weaker-than-expected while retail demand is robust. Among rumors, LEAP (+9.0%) and T (+1.9%) had recent discussions regarding merger, according to reports. Also, we are hearing BIDU (-1.5%)-for-SOHU (-0.2%) making the rounds.
Among notable analyst upgrades this morning, T (+1.9%) and VZ (+1.9%) were upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse and ERIC (+0.8%) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS. While in downgrades, WIN (-1.2%) was downgraded to Neutral at Citigroup and KEM (-12.0%) was downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill .
Worries about the health and the transparency of operations at diversified banks and financial services institutions were revived when JPMorgan Chase (JPM 36.96, -3.78), considered among the best in the business, announced that it has tagged $2 billion in trading losses. It mattered little to market participants that such a loss was partially offset by $1.0 billion in securities gains. The stock suffered its worst percentage drop late last summer, while the rest of the Financial sector surrendered 1.2%.
Adding to the negative tone were concerns about China’s economy rate after the country’s latest reading on retail sales and industrial production pointed to slower growth.
Participants responded to the stories by sending stocks lower at the open, but the major equity averages began to fight through the selling almost immediately. The effort was led by Tech, which climbed out of the red to a solid gain. It also helped the Nasdaq run ahead of its counterparts. Among Tech issues, semiconductor-related plays were particularly strong.
A surprise improvement in the Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan seemed to encourage traders to extend the bounce. The Survey reading of 77.8, marked an improvement from the 76.4 that had been posted in the prior month. It also bested the 76.0 that had been broadly expected.
The only other dose of data today was a surprise 0.2% decline in overall producer prices during April. The 0.2% increase in core producer prices was exactly what had been expected.
Although stocks were able to reverse their way out of the red, momentum was lost when the S&P 500 reached its prior session high. Its failure to extend past that point was followed by a steady decline, which left nearly every sector to settle in negative territory – Telecom scored the only gain of the session by putting together an impressive 1.2% advance with help from integrated telecom issues.
Action leading up to Friday was mostly weak, extending the price action at the end of the prior week. However, stocks scored their first meaningful gain in seven sessions on Thursday, but only after withstanding some late-day selling.
Focus during the day remained on Greece as leaders there worked to form a coalition government after there had been uncertainty surrounding the shape that the government would take following political impasse earlier in the week.
The latest weekly initial jobless claims count held steady slightly below 370,000, which is generally on par with the tally of 365,000 that had been generally expected. There is speculation that the elevated claims levels during the first three weeks of April were the result of seasonal adjustment biases and not a change in overall labor conditions. As such, there may be payroll growth in May that exceeds that of April, but possibly less than what was achieved during December through February.
Stocks started the week on a flat note. The lackluster action came amid an absence of data. Financials had offered leadership, but the broad market generally failed to follow. Tech stocks lagged.
Sellers attempted to reclaim control of stocks on Tuesday by driving the S&P 500 down more than 1% before it began to slash losses. The slide came amid concerns that the election of a Socialist to the Presidency of France and political impasse in Greece could carry implications for the direction of and commitment to austerity plans. Stocks began their recovery effort after the broad market was able to maintain a floor above levels set back in March.
Action on Tuesday took the Volatility Index up nearly 10% to trade above 20 for the first time in almost a month and then back to about 19 for an overall increase of less than 1%.
Concerns about the implications of political uncertainty in Greece persisted in mid-week trade. That saw the major equity averages drop in excess of 1% -- this time taking the S&P 500 within a few points of its March low -- but once again selling pressure eased and losses were reduced.
Sentiment was helped when the EFSF made it known that more than 5 billion euros will be available to Greece, despite the political impasse in the country. That didn’t fully eliminate worry about the exposure of Financials to tumult in the eurozone.
In response to revived concerns about eurozone conditions the euro retreated to a multi-month low around $1.29 this week. That helped lift the Dollar Index above its 50-day moving average. Including incrementally positive finishes, the dollar has advanced for 10 straight days against a basket of major foreign currencies. The greenback booked back-to-back weekly gains of 1.0%.
Earnings season is winding down, but this week still featured a few important players. Dow component Disney (DIS 45.56, +0.28) scored a strong gain that took shares to a 52-week high on the back of better-than-expected earnings.
Fellow blue chip Cisco Systems (CSCO 16.50, -0.31) plunged after the company’s upside earnings surprise was overshadowed by a disappointing forecast.
Macy’s (M 37.98, +0.15) posted an upside earnings surprise, as did Kohl's (KSS 48.18, -0.48), but shares of the latter were sold in response to a dissatisfying forecast. Earnings from Nordstrom (JWN 50.96, -2.57) missed the consensus estimate.
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA 41.81, -0.24) posted pleasing earnings. Toyota Motor (TM 80.71, +0.98) did, too, but its outlook proved mixed relative to what had been projected already by Wall Street.
ArcelorMittal (MT 16.01, -0.36) was also in the mixed. Its earnings missed the consensus estimate.
Most commodities were sold this week. As such, the CRB Index suffered a 1.0% drop on Friday and a 1.8% decline for the week. It has fallen in seven of the past eight sessions.
Among the more closely tracked commodities, crude oil prices fell 2.5% to a 2012 closing low of $96.03 per barrel. In stark contrast, natural gas prices climbed 10% during the course of trade this week to settle pit trade on Friday at $2.51 per MMBtu.
As for precious metals, gold prices fell to $1584 per ounce for a 3.7% weekly loss, while silver sank to $28.91 per ounce, feeding a 5.0% weekly loss. Treasuries attracted many looking to trim risk. Buying interest sent the yield on the 10-year Note fractionally below 1.80% for a multi-month low.
Auctions this week featured an offering of 3-year Notes that drew a bid-to-cover ratio of about 3.7, dollar demand of $116.8 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 35.7%. An offering of 10-year Notes drew a bid-to-cover of 2.9, dollar demand of $69.6 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 38.7%. An auction of 30-year Bonds drew a bid-to-cover of 2.7, an indirect bidder rate of 33.8%, and dollar demand of $43.6 billion.
..Nasdaq 100 +0.00%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +0.1%.
Index Started Week Ended Week Change %Change YTD %
DJIA 13038.27 12820.60 -217.67 -1.7 4.9
Nasdaq 2956.34 2933.82 -22.52 -0.8 12.6
S&P 500 1369.10 1353.39 -15.71 -1.1 7.6
Russell 2000 791.84 790.06 -1.78 -0.2 6.6
9:53AM Semiconductor Hldrs extends strong early run fills this week's gap at 33.23 to test 38% retrace of May decline at 33.28 -- session high 33.27 (SMH) 33.20 +0.33 : Top performing Semi names include: NVDA +9.8%, LRCX +1.8%, MRVL +1.7%, INTC +1.6%, ALTR +1.3%, XLNX +1.3%, BRCM +1%, LLTC +0.7%.
7:35AM NVIDIA reports Q1 EPS in-line with slight rev upside; guides Q2 revs above consensus with GM flat to up 200 bps QoQ (NVDA) 23.09 : Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $0.16 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate consensus of $0.16; revenues fell 3.9% year/year to $924.9 mln vs the $916.5 mln consensus, with non-GAAP GM -210 bps QoQ to 50.4%. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $990 mln - $1.05 bln vs. $979.11 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 51.5%, plus or minus one percentage point.
10:31 am : S&P Information Technology Index
The tech sector is trading higher today, ahead of gains in the broader market. Semiconductors are also showing relative strength with the Philly Semi Index trading 1.3% higher. NVDA (+8.3%) is a notable leader in that chip index. Among other major indices, the SPY is trading 0.2% higher today, while the QQQ is up 0.8% and the NASDAQ is trading 0.6% higher on the session. Among tech bellwethers, MSFT (+2.5%) is showing notable strength.
In earnings last night, BRKS (-3.1%) posted a beat, but guided lower, while NUAN (-0.2%) reported an inline qtr and raised guidance and CA (-1.1%) reported a beat and downside guidance. Also, INTC (+2.1%) reaffirmed guidance at its analyst day. This morning, NVDA (+8.1%) posted slight upside to its Q1 and guided above consensus. In news, there is a Bloomberg article that indicates institutional demand for FB IPO is weaker-than-expected while retail demand is robust. Among rumors, LEAP (+9.0%) and T (+1.9%) had recent discussions regarding merger, according to reports. Also, we are hearing BIDU (-1.5%)-for-SOHU (-0.2%) making the rounds.
Among notable analyst upgrades this morning, T (+1.9%) and VZ (+1.9%) were upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse and ERIC (+0.8%) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS. While in downgrades, WIN (-1.2%) was downgraded to Neutral at Citigroup and KEM (-12.0%) was downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill .
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