Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Medivir’s EASL presentation

Slide 22 – goal for next gen treatment is 2 DAAs in combo. I actually don't like this assertion as I think it puts more pressure on Medivir and TMC435. I think TMC435 could most assuredly find a home in a 3-drug cocktail but if only 2 then that obviously narrows the window and opportunity. I doubt GILD will use TMC435 in an HCV DAA combo so that perhaps puts a lot of pressure on Medivir to hope that BMY will need to use TMC435 with either daclatasvir or BMS-094. If not, Medivir will have to find someone else or hope to pair TMC435 with their nuke partnered w/JNJ or one of their unpartnered ones, though all of those are far behind.

Almost every HCV company states that a 2-drug all-oral cocktail is the goal, so I would not be unduly concerned about this.

Slide 21 - Cirrhotic patient data largely missing (from trials to date). These are most difficult patients to treat and make up substantial portion of available patient pool. SVR36 may be needed to capture real life relapse rate in IFN-free [and ribavirin-free] setting.

This is consistent with the discussion on this board about late relapses seen in ABT’s PILOT study (see #msg-74608528 and the reply chain).