Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Projected 2012 US Copaxone sales

1Q12 US Copaxone sales reported today by Teva were $617M, -1% vs 1Q11, and -17% vs my estimated figure for 4Q11 (#msg-72138967):

http://ir.tevapharm.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=73925&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1693594&highlight

In the U.S., in-market sales slightly decreased 1% to $617 million, as a result of the renegotiation of certain distribution services agreements so as to establish a new fee structure, partially offset by price increases.

In other words, the average US selling price after discounts and rebates declined relative to prior quarters. In 1Q12, US Copaxone sales were 68% of the worldwide total, down from an average of 74% in prior quarters.

Teva did not formally change its guidance given in Dec 2011 for $3.8B of worldwide Copaxone sales in 2012 (#msg-70158971); however, if we assume that the proportion of worldwide Copaxone sales from the US remains at 68% (rather than the prior 74%), then Teva’s guidance implies 2012 US Copaxone sales of about $2.6B. Ignoring quarterly variation and simply multiplying the 1Q12 figure of $617M by four gives $2.47B. Thus, it seems reasonable to infer that 2012 US Copaxone sales will be in the range of $2.4-2.6B. (This range assumes no launch of a US generic Copaxone in 2012.)