Biotech Values

[wallstarb]

NABI value based on BTA:ASX should be about $2.16 currently

BTA market cap of AUD 160m which implies the combined company worth $222m USD ($160m AUD/0.74)/0.97 (USDAUD exchange) = $223m USD.

This implies the AFTER NABI cash dividend stake is worth 26% of $223m or $58m ($1.38 a share). Based on my spreadsheet NABI currently has NET CASH of $90m - so given the current burn I am estimating $33 - 34m cash will be returned to NABI shareholders before the merger or $0.78 a share (based on 42.9m shares)

Currently at $1.60 a share you are buying a 26% interest in the new company valued at $1.38 for $0.82 which is about a 40% discount. It valued the NEW Biota/NABI @ $140m that will have $100m cash and no debt/liabilities to speak of. That values all of their IP (3 revenue generating compounds and 2 late stage (phase 3) drugs @ $40m.

This seems as good a risk reward as I have seen since TSPT in March of 2009 when it did the reverse merger and was under $3 and had over $6 a share in cash and a PDUFA in 6 months.

While this math is a little "convoluded" I think that NABI now is a cheap way to buy into a succesful antiviral/flu pipeline with a large contract ($230m) to develop laninamivir in the US as a next gen flu vaccine.