Tornado Alley (PROG)

[StephanieVanbryce]

The far-right Le Pen, 43, did not specifically direct her own supporters to rally behind or against anyone in the runoff, but on Sunday night, she described Sarkozy as "the outgoing president" and characterized her party as "the only opposition."

I believe that 'Le Pen' and her far-right fascists will throw their weight to Nicolas Sarkozy, the classic NEO-CON. Plus, this.

Francois Hollande has the 'financial' markets AND the 1% in a complete state of total fear AND therefore, they are determined to STOP him. ( Obama is facing the same exact situation ) They will stop at nothing. And here is why:

"Socialist" doesn't mean what it once did in France. Hollande's reputation is as a man of the center-left. A compromiser. A dealmaker. And yet, markets don't much like him. For one thing he wants to create a 75 percent tax bracket for income over $1.3 million a year. For another, he says things like, "My true adversary...has no name, no face; he belongs to no party; he will never declare his candidacy. He will not be elected, yet he governs. My enemy is the world of finance." (Try to imagine, by the way, a major American politician saying that.)

All this makes the French election interesting. But its the effective referendum on the euro-zone project that makes it, for the United States, important. Hollande has also promised that, if elected he will renegotiate the treaties governing the austerity targets across Europe. Some think this will doom the euro zone. Others think it's the only way to save it. The answer matters for more than just the future of Europe. It might decide the American election, too.

In an interview [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/why-you-should-care-about-the-french-election/2012/04/20/gIQAhI0yVT_blog.html?wpisrc=nl_wonk ] with my colleague Brad Plumer, Art Goldhammer, who is at Harvard's Center for European Studies, made the optimist's case:

"If Hollande is elected and goes through with trying to renegotiate the euro zone pact, he’ll find support from countries like Spain and Italy. Spain desperately needs to do something to bring down its 25 percent unemployment rate, and Mario Monti in Italy was ostensibly put in there to implement the pro-austerity consensus, but he’s having difficulty with the country’s labor unions, and knows something needs to be done to stimulate the economy."

"So everyone outside Germany has an interest in changing things. And I think [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel has evolved on this, recognizing that an all-austerity approach isn’t going to work. But she’s facing her own election in 2013 and a substantial portion of her party doesn’t want to budge on this. So if I’m correct that she’s evolved, she has a political problem. Hollande’s election might give her some room to maneuver, by building a consensus for more pro-growth policies. Hollande’s election could be a signal of a change in thinking and influence German politics."

Goldhammer's point on Merkel is worth taking seriously. Germany, for historical reasons, is very leery to make any major moves without the backing of France. Throughout the euro-zone effort, Merkel and Sarkozy have stood hip-to-hip. Now, to retain French support for their agenda, Germany will have to ease up on austerity and come up with a plausible growth strategy. And perhaps they will. Or perhaps they'll decide that enough is enough, unemployment in Germany is under six percent, and it's time to cut their losses.

Hollande's election could, in other words, permit a course correction that is already overdue in Europe. Or it could trigger a crisis that further imperils the European project and sends shockwaves of financial uncertainty over to our shores.

On Saturday, Paul Krugman made the case that it's better to gamble on a new direction that might work out rather than double down on a failing strategy. "If Sarkozy somehow pulls off an upset win," he wrote, [ http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/21/a-note-on-the-french-election/?wpisrc=nl_wonk ] "it will mean more of the same European economic orthodoxy — the insistence that fiscal responsibility is the only virtue and austerity the universal answer. This orthodoxy somehow retains its grip despite overwhelming evidence that it’s wrong and disastrous failures in practice. A Hollande victory would shake things up, and offer at least the possibility of something better."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/wonkbook-can-a-french-socialist-save-the-euro-zone/2012/04/23/gIQAZPqgbT_blog.html

1. Higher Taxes on the rich.
2. Moderate Austerity.
3. Focus on Growth.
4. Hugh Carnegy profiles [ http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/106f8d3c-894f-11e1-bed0-00144feab49a.html#axzz1stA0T8N2 ] "Mr Hollande is seen with suspicion by financial markets. He promises fiscal discipline, but plans to raise spending and taxes; unstitch some of Mr Sarkozy’s pension reforms; and crack down on the banks and executive pay. He once said: 'I don’t like the rich.' Yet having said in January that his 'true adversary' was the world of finance, he said in London soon after: 'I am not dangerous.' It prompted Mr Sarkozy to remark that Mr Hollande was 'Mitterrand in France and Thatcher in Britain'."

Here is a photo Francois Hollande, An interesting looking man, I'm impressed ... ;)


France's opposition Socialist Party candidate for the 2012 French Presidential election Francois Hollande adjusts his glasses on stage after the announcement of the estimated results of the first round of the French 2012 presidential election, on April 22. (JEAN-PIERRE MULLER - AFP/GETTY IMAGES)

I'm hoping that the other parties, will now, come around to backing him .. I don't know if that will be enough to defeat Sarkozy...along with his 'new' supporters ... . Marine Le Pen's.

...........sounds like a prescription for defeat to me, sorry to say.