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Saturday, April 21, 2012 8:50:00 PM
you are probably right about that and the E.U. could add flames to that fire with an even bigger Bail Out Plan,,like a common Bond issue program but
Posted April 9 when AAPL was above 625 --
The first step toward its downfall is an abrupt change in how the stock trades. This is already happening. Apple has gone from outperforming the market every year to outperforming stocks nearly every single day. The trend has accelerated. The stock has spent very little time consolidating its big move. Any way you look at it, Apple’s recent run-up is unsustainable. The chart has gone hyperbolic — a sure sign that a correction is imminent.
This brings us to step two in the process: Wall Street analysts swooping in with outrageous price predictions. Topeka Capital has already posted its $1,000 call. In the coming days and weeks, you should expect the bizarre game of “analyst leapfrog” to begin. The drones covering Apple stock will re-evaluate their numbers. Analysts will increase their estimates.
Investors will greet the higher price targets with enthusiasm believing iPhones and iPads will be bought and re-bought by every person on the planet. The investing public will gush over its paper gains and repeat the famous bag-holder mantra:
This time, it’s different…
Only it’s not different. History will continue to repeat. That brings us to step three. I call it the “first crack.”
Consider the following: Apple is the most valuable public company in the world. It is the most widely owned stock among hedge funds. The stock has enjoyed a tremendous, decade-long bull run. Every armchair investor in the country has bought shares. In short, no one is left to buy into the story anymore. Just one sign of weakness will trigger the first selloff.
Hedge funds will sell first, creating a powerful initial drop. Average investors will shrug it off. Analysts will immediately defend the stock. They will insist that the drop has created a buying opportunity. But by that time, it will be too late.
Once the meltdown begins, there’s no way to stop it.
As the big money players unwind positions, the stock will develop the first signs of a massive downtrend. At that point, too many investors will be underwater. The floodgates will open. Apple will go from Wall Street’s darling to a complete outcast in a matter of weeks…
If you just take a step back from the noise, you can see why the $1 trillion milestone wont’ happen. Remember, this exact same scenario has played out time and again throughout every sector and asset class on the market. No matter how strong the underlying company might be, its stock cannot overcome a dangerous, parabolic chart like we’re seeing in Apple right now.
Investors have already banked the easy money. Don’t get burned fighting for the scraps.
Sincerely,
– Greg Guenthner
Posted April 9 when AAPL was above 625 --
The first step toward its downfall is an abrupt change in how the stock trades. This is already happening. Apple has gone from outperforming the market every year to outperforming stocks nearly every single day. The trend has accelerated. The stock has spent very little time consolidating its big move. Any way you look at it, Apple’s recent run-up is unsustainable. The chart has gone hyperbolic — a sure sign that a correction is imminent.
This brings us to step two in the process: Wall Street analysts swooping in with outrageous price predictions. Topeka Capital has already posted its $1,000 call. In the coming days and weeks, you should expect the bizarre game of “analyst leapfrog” to begin. The drones covering Apple stock will re-evaluate their numbers. Analysts will increase their estimates.
Investors will greet the higher price targets with enthusiasm believing iPhones and iPads will be bought and re-bought by every person on the planet. The investing public will gush over its paper gains and repeat the famous bag-holder mantra:
This time, it’s different…
Only it’s not different. History will continue to repeat. That brings us to step three. I call it the “first crack.”
Consider the following: Apple is the most valuable public company in the world. It is the most widely owned stock among hedge funds. The stock has enjoyed a tremendous, decade-long bull run. Every armchair investor in the country has bought shares. In short, no one is left to buy into the story anymore. Just one sign of weakness will trigger the first selloff.
Hedge funds will sell first, creating a powerful initial drop. Average investors will shrug it off. Analysts will immediately defend the stock. They will insist that the drop has created a buying opportunity. But by that time, it will be too late.
Once the meltdown begins, there’s no way to stop it.
As the big money players unwind positions, the stock will develop the first signs of a massive downtrend. At that point, too many investors will be underwater. The floodgates will open. Apple will go from Wall Street’s darling to a complete outcast in a matter of weeks…
If you just take a step back from the noise, you can see why the $1 trillion milestone wont’ happen. Remember, this exact same scenario has played out time and again throughout every sector and asset class on the market. No matter how strong the underlying company might be, its stock cannot overcome a dangerous, parabolic chart like we’re seeing in Apple right now.
Investors have already banked the easy money. Don’t get burned fighting for the scraps.
Sincerely,
– Greg Guenthner
