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InvestmentHouse Weekend Market Update:

http://investmenthouse2.com/cntdirplus.asp?name=IHDaily&zid=2770189&eeid=XFcqVytdVygELD4ZXlAyUFpZGFAqWg==

- Stocks bide some time ahead of trader-less Friday jobs report.
- France debt auction shows shades of Italy with higher rates and weak demand.
- Spanish 10 year bond revisits last fall's spread with German bonds.
- Money fleeing Europe for the US once again and even US instruments are impacted.
- Jobless claims hit a 4 year low so the news outlets tell us without any asterisk just as the Department of Labor tells them.
- Same Store Sales feast again on the warm winter and early Easter.
- Money fleeing US equity markets . . . still . . . as investors pull money and insiders sell.
- Indices bounce but they do not wipe away the Wednesday flops. This makes next week most interesting for the life of this part of the rally.

Jobs Report Addition: STILL!!

Jobs report failed to surprise other than it was a miss even in the face of serious seasonal adjustments. When it is 70 degrees and more in February and March then seasonal adjustments don't really apply; yet they ARE applied. The net result is pushing up the numbers beyond what they really are.

Even so it was a pretty big miss.

Non-Farm: 120K VS 200K exp, 240K prior (revised from 227K)
Unemployment rate: 8.2% vs 8.3% exp, 8.3% prior
Hourly earnings: 0.2% vs 0.2% vs 0.3% revised from 0.1%
Workweek: 34.5 versus 34.5 expected, 34.6 prior, revised up from 34.5

Aggregate hours: -0.2% vs +0.5% February
How do you upwardly revised the workweek? With lower aggregate hours? That is the same as revising the unemployment rate itself as seen a few months back. It just is not something that needs revising.

Workforce: -164K
Employment: -34K
Those Not in the labor force back to a new high: 87.9M! Census as of 7-11 put the US population at 311.6M. That means 28% of the US is not in the workforce. When you factor in those of working age (237.8M) only the number rises to 37% of the population can work but are not working for some reason.

Do we have a selloff or rally on these numbers?

Futures traded for 45 minutes then closed. Adjusting for Fair Value:
DJ: -143
SP: -19.75
NASD: -33.4

Bonds 2.08% vs 2.17%

The numbers clearly disappointed the stock market and other markets. Think: if these numbers are aided by seasonal adjustments, something we will see very starkly in April's numbers when the adjustments should stop (maybe the Fed won't want to . . . ), the numbers must really have been bad.

Knee-jerk is down; bad numbers warrant selling. That is the 'real world' response to such stimulus. Now overlay the world we are in with a President desperate for re-election, eager to promise whatever it takes, and a Fed chairman who wants to be remembered as the fellow who prevented another Great Depression. He has been trying to keep a lid on the hawks. This number gives him leverage.

Question: is it enough to put QE 3 on the table again? Not likely, but probably takes either weaker data elsewhere or the April jobs report with a weak number again, revealing what paper tigers the spring payrolls numbers are. This morning the President is touting over 600K jobs created in Q1. What about the 5.05M NEW jobless claims in Q1? While not apples to apples the comparison shows that more people are losing jobs or unable to find jobs versus finding new jobs.

Of course, if the financial markets tank the Fed will be there, liquidity in hand. Thus, as for next week, unless there is some overt sign over the weekend from the Fed (and there should not be unless it is completely without credibility) investors likely take things into their own hands and sell, perhaps creating their own financial crisis that compels the Fed to act. That would rally the market eventually but not near term (duh!).

In sum, that likely means that where the futures went out they likely open on Monday.

Flat ahead of Friday jobs report and market closure.

This will be the Thursday and the weekend market update, although I will have something to say about the jobs report on Friday when the market is not open.

I will digress right off the bat. As you recall, the February jobs report was pushed back to March 9 from March 2. March 2 was the first Friday of that month and traditionally the day that the jobs report is announced. They pushed it back because it was inconvenient for the federal government to have it ready at that point. Now it will be inconvenient for the financial markets and investors and traders, as well as those who look upon Good Friday as one of the holiest days in the Christian religion. It is definitely inconvenient for them, but the government will release the data anyway. I guess that tells you what this government thinks about the financial markets, traders, investors, and a major religion (probably THE major religion) in the United States. But I digress. Am I a little bitter? I will let you decide.

There was a lot of news on both sides of the Atlantic. We had scheduled U.S. data with the jobless claims. We had a lot of unscheduled data on the continent, which was somewhat of a problem. I will get to that when I discuss the economic issues. The overriding factor is the jobs report that is out on Friday and the inability to trade that jobs report.

Stocks started lower after that Wednesday flop, but they quickly recovered. The SPYders turned to positive by mid-morning. They sold back and then managed to rebound in the back half of the afternoon. They never quite captured the glory of the first morning move, although there was not much glory there anyway. When you look at the end results, even with the indices recovering off of the lows, SP500 was down -0.06%. Oh, what a terrible loss. It kind of sums up the day.

SP500, -0.06%; NASDAQ, +0.4%; Dow, -0.11%; SP600, -0.25%; SOX, +0.31%; NASDAQ 100, +0.64%.

Notably, NASDAQ 100 was up. I wonder why. AAPL was up, and so was PCLN. Those are two huge players in NASDAQ. The stocks just bracketed the zero line, basically going nowhere. Again, that is understandable given that the market is closed on Friday. Yet we have a huge at least that is what we are led to believe economic report coming out.

Looking at the gain on SP500, it is up 12% thus far in 2012. 15% of that move is attributable to AAPL and its large market cap weighting. I have often said that the NASDAQ is AAPL, and it is starting to look as if the SP500 is AAPL as well.

OTHER MARKETS

It was a lackluster day as investors awaited the Friday jobs report. Other markets still managed to continue their recent moves with some rebounds from some heavy bludgeoning.

Dollar. 1.3061 versus 1.3139 euro. The dollar managed to post a further gain. It was a strong gain against Europe. The dollar is on a mini-roll, bouncing up off of a higher low. It had an ABCD pattern. A little double bottom at the D point, and it has bounced. It was shaky on the day. There are a lot of issues in the economies of Europe and the U.S. that are impacting how currencies are trading. There were bonds problems in Europe again. That is causing a run into some U.S. dollars. The old greenback is getting more money coming across the continent yet again. It looks as if there is still strength here as the eurozone continues to degenerate. Some are saying it is degenerating "again," but in reality it never really stopped. We can look into that more when we get to the economy section.

Bonds. 2.17% versus 2.23% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds were benefiting to the upside for a second day after that big drop on Tuesday. Wednesday fell from a 2.30% yield on Tuesday. We see a rebound from that big break lower. Will it recover? It was not look healthy. Looks like it could turn and drop from here, but it is making the good ol' college try at rebounding.

Gold. 1,634.00, +19.90. Gold tried to come back from that Tuesday and Wednesday bludgeoning. It bounced to the upside in a decent recovery. Unfortunately, it got the squat kicked out of it on the prior two sessions, dropping it from the confluence of the 200 day SMA and the 50 day EMA. It is trying to hold, and it is hanging on by it is fingernails.

Oil. 103.29, +1.82. Oil managed to post a bounce as well. It broke sharply lower. It rebounded and then broke lower hard on Wednesday. It had a little relief bounce on Thursday that took it back up toward the 50 day EMA. But that does not clear it. It does not wash away the prior two big down days. Oil still finds itself having to struggle to get back up through this near resistance. After just posting a good test, it broke down. Now we see if it is a false break and can reverse or if it continues lower. Frankly, it looks like it will continue down into this range spanning November into early February.

In sum, the markets continue to respond to the news of the week. On Thursday there were reports all over the place. You had the weekly jobless report. You had the Challenger layoff report. Same Store Sales were out from all of the chain stores. There were auctions in France. Spanish yields were being compared to German yields. You name it and it was pretty much there. But the markets did not want to do anything major. Number one because of a pretty nasty flop to the downside that they suffered on Wednesday as part of the ongoing back and forth volatility. I will say "relatively recent" back and forth volatility because the moves have been pretty steady up to this point. These are not massive swings that I was talking about last night. I was talking about the volatility picking up day to day. But these are not massive moves. They are substantial back-and-forth action, and it is a bit different character than we have seen, but we are not getting the huge 2% moves. That would really show a lot of volatility.

We are getting a little chop in the pattern that suggests, after this slow move and low volume advance, that we could get a pullback. But it does not look like anything major. If we come back to the 50 day EMA which sits right on top of the February peaks for SP500, then you have a pretty good pullback that sets things up to move again. Even so, you have SP500 holding the 20 day EMA and showing a doji on the candlestick chart. Maybe it wants to hold here. Yes, there is a little more volatility. Yes, there may be a little bit of change in the weather coming, but it definitely has not changed its character yet. It certainly did not want to do that on Thursday just ahead of the jobs report. Maybe the jobs report comes out big and we get a large advance. Maybe it misses and we do not. Everyone is banking on a beat.

I was listening to all of the financial stations after hours, and they are all talking about the potential of a really big beat. I was reading stories about the jobless claims and how they are down to the 360K range. They say that is really conducive to jobs growth. Frankly, just because it is down in a trend and they did not lay off as many as they did the week before (although that is questionable, and I will talk about that) it does not mean that they are hiring. You can slow down how many people you lay off without having to hire anyone right back. We still have a very high number of people being laid off. If you look back to times when the economy was halfway decent, you would get a weekly jobless claims in the 50K range. Here we are talking over 350K. That is not all that strong.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

Volume. NASDAQ -15%, 1.53B; NYSE -11.5%, 657M.

Breadth. NASDAQ -1.16:1; NYSE -1.13:1. Breadth was modest. After some pretty aggressive -4:1 readings on Wednesday, they flattened out as you would expect because the market overall flattened out. No real action whatsoever. The internals do not really tell us a thing.

THE CHARTS

SP500. The charts do not tell us much either. There is a doji at the 20 day EMA on SP500 as noted above. That same volatility, and the Wednesday drop is still there. That is not a huge drop. We can look back to March 6th and see that the index posted a sharp decline. It was significantly larger than on Wednesday. Wednesday was no watershed breakdown; in fact, it is still holding the 20 day EMA. But we are seeing chop back and forth. It is happening more rapidly. In other words, you are seeing a move up followed by sharp moves down. Beforehand we were seeing moves that maybe made just a one-day move, but then they consolidated and moved again for one day. Then they consolidated and moved again for one day. Then they consolidated as we saw in January.

We saw similar action in February. A break to the upside, a week and a half laterally, then a break to the upside. Two weeks lateral, a little test, and then a break to the upside. Again with a decent rally in the first two weeks of March. Now we are seeing chop back and forth. One day up and then immediately testing. Another day up and immediately testing. It is still not breaking down, but it is a little choppier, a little more worrisome. Running out of some mojo perhaps? MACD definitely shows that. A lower high at a higher high. You have to take that into consideration. You see a little slowdown, but as of yet there is no change in market character.

DJ30. DJ30 showed a doji with a slight loss. It is holding above the lows of the last three weeks. It is still continuing its trading range, and it is still above that February consolidation range that marked the top of the February move. It is not breaking down either. It could easily bounce back up from this range, but it is a little choppier. One day up and followed by, again, the selling. Definitely not a change of character yet, however. It is showing shades of hanging around in the wrong neighborhood, but it has not left the good neighborhood yet. It is just edging over toward that fence and looking over to see what is happening. That is how it always happens. You tell the kids, "You might just be curious about what is over there, but as soon as you look, something you do not expect will happen." Then the next thing you know, they are calling mom and dad with a problem.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ posted a gain, bouncing off of the 20 day EMA after falling to that level on Wednesday. The NASDAQ has not been down to the 20 day EMA since early March when it broke it but bounced right back. It did not break it this time, so maybe it will exhibit even further strength than it did in early March. We will see. It has to prove it. It has AAPL and PCLN on its side, so it has some silver bullets still in the gun. If those two ever stop rallying, it could be bad not only for NASDAQ but for the SP500 as well. NASDAQ has no change of character; it is just testing the 20 day EMA. That is a relatively important test given how it has treated the 20 day EMA thus far; in other words, never coming close to it except once in the last several months. This does have some intrigue about it.

SP600. The small caps were down modestly. They were holding over the 50 day EMA, which is coincident with the late July 2011 peak. If we go back more, it is the May peak as well. It is holding at a significant level, some prior highs in the rally. That is what you want to see. On the other hand, it has given up its breakout to a new post bear market high. We wanted to put some distance here, finally. Remember that it had a hard time breaking out. It got rebuffed when it finally did break out once, but it made a higher low and broke out again. It looked strong, tested, bounced again, and then gave it up again. Maybe it will bounce out of here or maybe not. A lot of it depends on what the economy will do, and the beauty of the small cap index is that it kind of shows us what will happen with the economy in terms of domestic small businesses. Frankly, it is better than the bond market right now because the bond market is being manipulated by the Fed. We really cannot get a clear read thanks to heavy, heavy intervention by our FOMC.

SOX. SOX was up modestly. It managed to close just above the 50 day EMA, similar to what it did back in early March. It has shades of NASDAQ with a gap lower and a gap back up that continued the move. Perhaps this is just another 50 day EMA test. There is nothing abnormal about a stock or index coming back to test the 50 day EMA after a rally. The problem is that it just barely shaved that prior high hit in February before falling back. It is not exhibiting a lot of power. It just barely cleared that high, tried to consolidate, and then it gapped to the downside on Wednesday. I am somewhat concerned about these guys, but they have not totally changed character either. We can let them go and just see if they can follow along with NASDAQ if AAPL and PCLN can continue higher as well.

LEADERSHIP

Retail. I will talk about retail first because it was Same Store Sales day. That is always a good time to step in and look under the skirt, so to speak. Retail has been performing. It is one of the best sectors, but it had been showing some lethargy of late. RL has been moving laterally ever since it gapped higher in early February. Maybe it caught a little fire, rallying to the upside nicely on Thursday. Good for RL.

Of course, PCLN moved higher as well. We have to consider it retail because it sells plane tickets, car rentals, and that type of thing. Very solid. COH is hugging the 50 day EMA. Will it bounce this time or not? TJX had a nice move to the upside. That is looking quite good overall. Same Store Sales were good overall. LULU was much better than expected, with warm weather aiding the advance once again. Retail has been blessed with warm weather that has started to move out those spring inventories much quicker than usual. And there is also an early Easter. It is so early that the government will not embargo the jobs report on Friday to kick it to next week. But I do not want to seem too bitter about that.

Overall retail looks very solid. No complaints. Of course we had BBBY, the darling of the day. It announced some good results the night before, and, of course, Same Store Sales were great. It bounced sharply to the upside with a gap and run on big volume. Cool. Retail still looks super.

Industrial Equipment. What about those stocks that bounced but have not quite made it back? CAT tapped the 10 day EMA again on the high and faded. It is trying to regroup. I noted last night that a lot of these stocks that have rolled and are in trouble (or seem to be) just will not give it up. They will not say "uncle" and sell off. That shows there is still some kind of bid in this market. TEX is trying to set up a pennant. Here is something to watch out for. This pennant looks solid. When the bull market ended in 2000, we saw this pattern a lot. That is what we have to worry about. They cratered off of this pattern. If we see stocks breaking downside and not getting back up off of these big pennants, we know that there is trouble ahead. But it may not be horrific trouble. These have rebounded and now we see how they perform after this rebound. We may get a downside play on JOY.

Healthcare. Let's look at some of the health care plans and how they are performing. AET rallied, jumped up on the Supreme Court argument. Now it is fading for a nice test. HUM is doing the same thing. Not bad at all. Those have a specific driver. If the Obamacare is repealed, they tend to do better because they will not be forced into certain coverage that they do not want. They are showing a response to a direct stimulus. The rest of the market is just continuing on as it has been, trying to figure out what will happen in the U.S. vis-a-vis Europe.

Miscellaneous. We still have the same picture. We have great stocks that continue to move higher, no doubt. CMG was breaking to the upside nicely on Thursday. There are other stocks that are still struggling. BWLD is still a great stock, but it is having a bit of toppy action. It has not broken its trend, but it is getting that rounded look to it.

Then there are those stocks that are just coming up out of the lows and have formed patterns. They have not made big runs yet, but they look ready to do that. EXPD is an example. We have the winners that continue to run. We did not close those out on Thursday ahead of the jobs report. We have stocks such as EXPD that have made a break to the upside and are consolidating, and they still look great to go. We were not closing those out, that is for sure. Why would you close out stocks that look so good? Then there are others in, say, tech land. DRIV looked so good just a week ago, but it is not looking so good right now. That is somewhat disturbing. It is not crushing us, but it is just not helping.

That is one of the problems on NASDAQ, for instance. A lot of stocks are just not helping the cause, relying on too few generals. Remember, NASDAQ 100 was the far and away leader on the day with a +0.64% gain. A few generals. The troops may not be falling. A little day-to-day volatility thrown in with that kind of action, and you have to be careful. That is exactly what we were doing on Thursday. We were just streamlining it a bit to keep the best patterns, the best trends in our quiver while we wait for the jobs report (and our inability to do anything about it on Friday).

Of course, would we really do anything? The jobs report will be there. I know I have been grousing about it, but it will be there no matter what, whether we are trading or not. The only thing that we would be acting upon would be after the numbers came out. If it is bad, maybe over the weekend they will be able to digest it. If it is good, then maybe we will get some buys if the market does not just roar out of the gates. Either way, it will probably not make that much difference. But it is sure fun to complain about.

THE ECONOMY

ALL IS WELL IN EUROPE, CRISIS OVER: THEN WHY SECRET MEETINGS, WEAK BOND AUCTIONS, AND EVEN SOME TROUBLE REFLECTED IN U.S. CDS?

France bond sale struggles to find takers, similar to Italy on Wednesday.

Italy cannot find enough willing buyers for its bonds, failing to meet its funding goals. It had to offer more in interest, but even that could not induce enough buyers to cover the goal.

France had a weak demand for its bond sale Thursday. It was better than Italy. It damn well should have been.

Spain: Its 10 year bond yield spread with the German Bund hit 400BP intraday, the first time since November 2011.

Credit Swaps in the US bouncing. Posted the biggest rise in four months.

Bernanke meets in New York with the head of the families (the Big Banks).

Art Cashin spoke Thursday of a secret banker's meeting with Bernanke last week.

Fortune has learned that attendees included Jamie Dimon (J.P. Morgan), Bob Diamond (Barclays), Brady Dougan (Credit Suisse), Larry Fink (Blackrock), Gerald Hassell (Bank of New York Mellon), Glenn Hutchins (Silver Lake), Colm Kelleher (Morgan Stanley), Brian Moynihan (Bank of America), Steve Schwarzman (Blackstone Group) and David Vinar (Goldman Sachs).

Sources say Bernanke spoke at length about monetary policy, in an apparent effort to persuade attendees that they needed to take a more active role in helping to deal with the European debt crisis. He spent virtually no time discussing regulation, although that mantle got taken up by both Dimon (domestic regulation) and Schwarzman (global regulation).

TO VIEW THE ECONOMY SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Economy Summary Video

OUTFLOWS CONTINUE, INSIDER SALES AS WELL.

The Dukes after their failed attempt to corner the frozen concentrated orange juice market.

Outflows continue their pace as one wonders just how much more the retail investor can take out.

March 28: -$3.5B

For 2012 thus far: -$19B

Same period 2011: -$10B

Bloomberg charts insider selling.

February: Insiders sell $6.8B
March: -$5.8B
Buying: February and March = 'negligible'

Gartmann: Insider selling 'concerning,' reaching 'epidemic proportions.'

Jobless claims down but up, less layoffs mean more hiring, and other illogic in the news media.

Things are that good? According to some in the media . . .

Initial Claims, 03/31 (8:30): 357K actual versus 355K expected, 363K prior (revised from 359K)

AP (Chistopher Rugaber): "The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment benefits fell to a four-year low last week, suggesting employers kept hiring in March at a healthy pace."

Week Actual Expected Prior Revised from
1/5/2012 372 375 387 381
1/12/2012 399 375 375 372
1/19/2012 352 385 402 399
1/26/2012 377 375 356 352
2/2/2012 367 375 379 377
2/16/2012 348 365 361 358
2/23/2012 351 355 351 348
3/1/2012 351 355 353 351
3/8/2012 362 355 354 351
3/15/2012 351 355 365 362
3/22/2012 348 355 353 351
3/29/2012 359 350 364 348
4/5/2012 357 355 363 359

THE MARKET

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 16.7; +0.26
VXN: 17.96; +0.01
VXO: 15.79; +0.44

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.95; -0.04

Bulls versus Bears

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 50.5% versus 48.4%. Well, turning right back up and gunning for the 51% peak hit a month back. Plenty of bullishness on the financial stations, even calls of Dow 17,000. Bullish sentiment is returning. Again, it is not excessively bullish. They are off the 55+ level even near the highs as investors get a bit pensive. Bigger picture that is good for the upside. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. Now the indices are back at that level and so are the bulls. All the more reason to watch this action at the prior highs. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal but now dissipating. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 22.6% versus 23.6%. Down further from 26.6% three weeks back and having held at 25% to 26% for weeks. Still not excessive either way. Solidly lower after spending weeks at 30%ish. Not at a bearish level but they are growing more confident even as the market hits the prior highs and is not blasting on through. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.

NASDAQ

Stats: +12.41 points (+0.4%) to close at 3080.5
Volume: 1.529B (-14.68%)

Up Volume: 835.14M (+634.56M)
Down Volume: 694.32M (-895.68M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.16 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.38 to 1

New Highs: 58 (+25)
New Lows: 52 (-8)

SP500/NYSE

Stats: -0.88 points (-0.06%) to close at 1398.08
NYSE Volume: 657M (-11.46%)

Up Volume: 1.09B (+520.02M)
Down Volume: 2.18B (-1.08B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.33 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.17 to 1

New Highs: 63 (+21)
New Lows: 42 (-9)

DJ30

Stats: -14.61 points (-0.11%) to close at 13060.14
Volume DJ30: 109M shares Thursday versus 125M shares Wednesday.

MONDAY

We have the jobs report on Friday, and 200K is expected. It is impossible to tell where the print will be because we just cannot tell what the government will do with the numbers. They are totally unreliable. As far as the unemployment rate at 8.3%, who knows what they will have. They move workers in and out of the jobs pool on a month-to-month basis. Sometimes it is daily. It is impossible to trust it. I will say they probably do not want to do too much with it because, if they do, it will be too noticeable. I guarantee you by midsummer that it will be under 8% regardless. The economy could be going back into recession, and it will be under 8% because that is a magic number for the election. I hate to sound cynical, but this absurdity of millions of workers disappearing overnight in January when the unemployment rate dropped just shows how absurd and how manipulated this has become.

Next week we have the usual suspects ending with the CPI on Friday. That should be very interesting because prices are rising and we have the preliminary Michigan Sentiment. In any event, the big news will still be on Friday. Of course we have to look at it from that perspective.

In the prior section, I went over my read of what will happen after the jobs report. It may not make any difference whatsoever that the market is closed. The weekend will give investors a chance to digest it, whether it is good or bad. It could be good, and it probably will be good for the very reason I just talked about. There is nothing in it for current people in power to have a weak report. We will figure out one way or another to make it more positive.

Thus we may get a surge to the upside. Of course we will be looking for opportunities to the upside if that occurs. There are still good patterns set up, and there are some great pullbacks in place that could make us some money. Of course the name of the game is to make some money no matter what you think of the merits of a rally or selloff (or whatever the market condition is). It does not matter what we think because the market is not listening to us. I do not care who you are, you do not have a crystal ball that tells you what will happen. I listen to these people on the financial stations every day and they tell you, looking straight into the camera, exactly will happen. But they do not have a clue. I mean, they have as much of a clue as anyone else that can make educated guesses. The market makes fools out of people who act upon educated guesses. The collective of millions upon millions of investors there is where your real power and knowledge. It will do what it wants to do.

We will be ready. We will look at upside, and downside. I have a suspicion that the jobs report will be just fine, thank you. We anticipate playing more upside, even though we did streamline the last few days because we did not want to go into the number with our castanets hanging out, so to speak. We wanted good, solid positions, and money available to put to work on other good, solid patterns that we can play on a good jobs report. The question is will a good report defeat the recent day-to-day volatility that has cropped up in the market? That will remain to be seen as well. As noted earlier, this is not devastating back-and-forth action. It is just a little bit of a change in the character. We will have to see if anything develops from there.

NASDAQ is down at it is 20 day EMA, a place that it has infrequently visited in this rally. That makes this a bit interesting as well. Certainly the action on Thursday was not enough to wipe away what happened on Wednesday. Given that, whatever occurs next week in the wake of the jobs report will be the telltale move of the near term. That is the next market run. A lot of people are expecting NASDAQ to bounce right up off of this 20 day EMA and continue. Frankly, it probably will do that. Even with the FOMC saying it would remove liquidity. Better yet, it said it would not put any more in until something broke. That is not the same as taking it off. There is still a lot in the system, so it could easily continue to the upside. But just as soon as we make that conclusion, it could make the breakout lower on the idea that the gravy train is over. The economy may not be strong enough to support economic activity without extra liquidity. If that is the case, the market will sell off.

Gosh, make up your mind. Well, we do not have to. We just play what the market gives us. We are set up really well. We are in some great positions, and we have other great positions we are looking to buy. We will have some more of those in the weekend report. We will be looking at the downside, too, in case things break. We have a lot of profit built up in these positions. We will be taking some because we have some April options, and expiration is coming in a couple of weeks. You have to remain flexible. Just as soon as you feel that you have it licked, then you get blindsided. You get that one "in your ear" as Shoeless Joe Jackson admonished the rookie Moonlight Graham in 'Field of Dreams.'

Have an excellent weekend whether you celebrate the Easter holiday or you practice any other religion. Enjoy family and friends. I talk a lot about economic troubles in the past and good times to come. It all starts at home; it all starts with your friends and family. We need to remember them at this time of year. Let us also remember those that are less fortunate in terms of their economic status and their health. We have several subscribers working with health issues, so let us watch after them as well. I am sorry if that gets anyone upset, but I cannot help it; this time of year means a lot to me. Have a great weekend. I will see you on Monday, but I will also have something to say after the jobs report.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 3080.50
Resistance:
3134 is the March 2012 post-bear market peak
3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low

Support:
The 20 day EMA at 3064
3042 from 5/2000 low
3026 from 10/2000 low
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 2976
2910 is the recent March 2012 low
2900 is the March 2012 low
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2754 is the October 2011 high
The 200 day SMA at 2711
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2441 is the November 2011 low

S&P 500: Closed at 1398.08

Resistance:
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows

Support:
The 20 day EMA at 1398
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 1368
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1318.51 is the May 2011 low
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1269
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low

Dow: Closed at 13,060.14
Resistance:
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak

Support:
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,056 is the February 2012 high
The 50 day EMA at 12,939
12,876 is the May high
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 12,114
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak

Economic Calendar

April 2 - Monday
- ISM Index, March (10:00): 53.4 actual versus 53.0 expected, 52.4 prior
- Construction Spending, February (10:00): -1.1% actual versus 0.5% expected, -0.8% prior (revised from -0.1%)

April 3 - Tuesday
- Factory Orders, February (10:00): 1.3% actual versus 1.4% expected, -1.1% prior (revised from -1.0%)
- FOMC Minutes, 3/13 (14:00)
- Auto Sales, March (14:00): 5.5M prior
- Truck Sales, March (14:00): 5.9M prior

April 4 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 03/31 (7:00): 4.8% actual versus -2.7% prior
- ADP Employment Chang, March (8:15): 209K actual versus 217K expected, 230K prior (revised from 216K)
- ISM Services, March (10:00): 56.0 actual versus 56.7 expected, 57.3 prior
- Crude Inventories, 03/31 (10:30): 9.009M actual versus 7.102M prior

April 5 - Thursday
- Challenger Job Cuts, March (7:30): -8.8% actual versus 2.0% prior
- Initial Claims, 03/31 (8:30): 357K actual versus 355K expected, 363K prior (revised from 359K)
- Continuing Claims, 03/24 (8:30): 3338K actual versus 3360K expected, 3354K prior (revised from 3340K)

April 6 - Friday
- Nonfarm Payrolls, March (8:30): 200K expected, 227K prior
- Nonfarm Private Payrolls, March (8:30): 215K expected, 233K prior
- Unemployment Rate, March (8:30): 8.3% expected, 8.3% prior
- Hourly Earnings, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
- Average Workweek, March (8:30): 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
- Consumer Credit, February (15:00): $14.0B expected, $17.8B prior

April 10 - Tuesday
- Wholesale Inventories, February (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.4% prior

April 11 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 04/07 (7:00): 4.8% prior
- Export Prices ex-ag., March (8:30): 0.5% prior
- Import Prices ex-oil, March (8:30): -0.1% prior
- Crude Inventories, 04/07 (10:30): 9.009M prior
- Treasury Budget, March (14:00): -$188.2B prior

April 12 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 04/07 (8:30): 355K expected, 357K prior
- Continuing Claims, 03/31 (8:30): 3350K expected, 3338K prior
- PPI, March (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
- Core PPI, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
- Trade Balance, February (8:30): -$52.0B expected, -$52.6B prior

April 13 - Friday
- CPI, March (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
- Core CPI, March (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
- Michigan Sentiment, April Preliminary (9:55): 76.1 expected, 76.2 prior