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Re: oilin07 post# 16200

Monday, 04/02/2012 8:25:08 AM

Monday, April 02, 2012 8:25:08 AM

Post# of 57458
The note holders can convert according to their contracts. Many are around the same timeframe according to the 10-Q. So there will be a flood of equity released into the market.

To address a different point, if you believe this is a real company then treat the news (or prospective news) seriously. Revenue from a production contract does not guarantee profits. It guarantees some volume of business which could still be loss making, breakeven, or even marginally profitable depending how how the manager runs the operation. That's why it's hard to know in advance what the effect of the news will be on the share price.

Think about this: It costs say $5M (name your number) to equip a facility to produce the first widget. If you produce 100,000 widgets or 1 widget, your set-up cost is still $5M. You have to sell that widget once it's produced. There are very few buyers at $5M so you can break-even and many at $50 (I'm keeping it simple because there are other costs). So to attract buyers to reach break-even, volume lowers the unit price and is your friend. If you don't sell your 100,000 widgets at $50 you've lost money, or have to raise the price and risk negating the contract or something, but there is no guarantee of profit.

If you sell 100k widgets at $60 you've made $1M profit, and if you sell 82k widgets at $60 you've taken an $80k loss. The difference between large profits and losses in this case relies on only 18k unsold widgets. Again, I've kept this very simple because there are many other variables (including, but not limited to, whether the market would even accept $60 as a unit price and absolutely no defects in the production which raises the unit cost).

That's why in a nutshell it makes a difference as to whether CNH is $50M ROM over 7 years or $40M ROM (name your amount).



If the TA is gagged you can bet it's not in the shareholders best interest.


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