Saturday, March 31, 2012 1:09:38 PM
Universal law of biotechnology: It virtually ALWAYS takes longer than you expect. There are very good reasons for that:
1) biology is a LOT more complicated that any but research scientists realize. What you get in high school or even first level university courses are VAST simplifications. That's completely unavoidable (unless you want to spend ten years taking a biology course. (go to a university bookstore. Look at a copy of the latest edition of Lewin's essential Genes (was up to "Genes X" and they redid the naming) 760 pages DENSELY CRAMMED with information about genes. AND THAT'S JUST A SUMMARY
2) for the above (and additional reasons: not aiding the competition, patents etc_) companies only reveal the barest details of what they are doing and especially how they are doing it.
3)when you read about successful research what you read is ONLY the very most important highlights: the core details that give the basic idea. But there are MANY addition critical details that needed to be worked out to make a technological advance successful. For example, to achieve successful cloning ("Dolly" the sheep) took a LOT more than just transferring chromosomes into an egg with its own chromosomes removed. They had to figure out how to feed and nurture the eggs. They had to figure out how to successfully implant the eggs into a surrogate mother. And both of those steps required learning MANY techniques that were essential to the success and some of them themselves consisted of a whole array of techniques individually worked out. (That's why researchers get frustrated when investors (or even CEOs with less than stellar grasp of science) get impatient with the pace of development)
4) sometimes legal problems have to get worked out: do we have to get a license to use this technique (if it's SGMO/SIAL's ZFs, d@mn right you do!), is this LEGAL in the country we are doing it in? (You would not believe what stem cell researchers have to go thru in the US (which is why the cutting edge has moved to Asia), what would be the best animal/whatever model to do this in? (MANY things to consider there and that choice may well make the difference between success and failure!)
I could make a much longer list, but that should give the general idea.
I know of no important biotechnology product that did not experience significant "delays" (i.e.: take longer than anticipated at some point in development) and defy anyone to give an example of any!
If you want to be successful in investing in biotechnology (as opposed to trading) you have to be able to deal with "delays" because they can and will happen.
What's happening now with KBLB is not really even a "delay". It's more that things aren't happening as quickly as some had hoped they would. (Which is almost always the case in biotechnology except right after a MAJOR milestone).
Patience is required.
1) biology is a LOT more complicated that any but research scientists realize. What you get in high school or even first level university courses are VAST simplifications. That's completely unavoidable (unless you want to spend ten years taking a biology course. (go to a university bookstore. Look at a copy of the latest edition of Lewin's essential Genes (was up to "Genes X" and they redid the naming) 760 pages DENSELY CRAMMED with information about genes. AND THAT'S JUST A SUMMARY
2) for the above (and additional reasons: not aiding the competition, patents etc_) companies only reveal the barest details of what they are doing and especially how they are doing it.
3)when you read about successful research what you read is ONLY the very most important highlights: the core details that give the basic idea. But there are MANY addition critical details that needed to be worked out to make a technological advance successful. For example, to achieve successful cloning ("Dolly" the sheep) took a LOT more than just transferring chromosomes into an egg with its own chromosomes removed. They had to figure out how to feed and nurture the eggs. They had to figure out how to successfully implant the eggs into a surrogate mother. And both of those steps required learning MANY techniques that were essential to the success and some of them themselves consisted of a whole array of techniques individually worked out. (That's why researchers get frustrated when investors (or even CEOs with less than stellar grasp of science) get impatient with the pace of development)
4) sometimes legal problems have to get worked out: do we have to get a license to use this technique (if it's SGMO/SIAL's ZFs, d@mn right you do!), is this LEGAL in the country we are doing it in? (You would not believe what stem cell researchers have to go thru in the US (which is why the cutting edge has moved to Asia), what would be the best animal/whatever model to do this in? (MANY things to consider there and that choice may well make the difference between success and failure!)
I could make a much longer list, but that should give the general idea.
I know of no important biotechnology product that did not experience significant "delays" (i.e.: take longer than anticipated at some point in development) and defy anyone to give an example of any!
If you want to be successful in investing in biotechnology (as opposed to trading) you have to be able to deal with "delays" because they can and will happen.
What's happening now with KBLB is not really even a "delay". It's more that things aren't happening as quickly as some had hoped they would. (Which is almost always the case in biotechnology except right after a MAJOR milestone).
Patience is required.
Recent KBLB News
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