I hate to throw cold water on an obviously very intentionally thought out post, but:
1. Nothing is written in stone
2. "They" could just as easily walk away knowing there are other fish to fry
3. Past actions are not necessarily indicative of future actions
4. If "they" knew in advance there was going to be a windfall, "they" could have made it a LOT easier by capitalizing the new company with $500MM or maybe a billion instead of a paltry $125MM. As it stands now, we can't just buy a $2 or $3BB company, we just don't have the funds, and more funds can't come from something simple like an IPO due to the well-established and real-world-tested IRS regs already discussed here many times over.
But I'm glad you're changing the tune to one of "in a few years" instead of immediate returns. I agree (in part) that this will be a substantial company given the amount of NOLs and the advantages it will give us for offsetting income taxes in the future. The potential for higher future corporate taxes if Obama is reelected further multiplies the possible NOL benefit (higher tax rate=more any competitors have to pay in taxes while we get a pass - and after the 2-year ownership restriction is lifted, the more the NOLs might be worth to a potential suitor). Not sure this will be a grand slam, but I certainly foresee a home run here long-term (stand-up triple at worst). I'm thrilled to be near the ground floor, assuming WMIH never trades below $1 again, which I think might be wishful thinking (for the next year anyway). I still think we started trading much too early, and I want to see a real business built in the next two quarters instead of just relying on litigation and waiting for our 2-year time out to expire. We're not "there" yet with existing assets to support a meaningful share price long-term.
Again, I'm glad to see an actual structured argument instead of tired old rhetoric. Thank you very much for that, it's very much appreciated, and I'm sure well received by the board at large*. :)
*pun not intended, didn't notice it until the proofread ;)
I have a social disorder (although it's not quite full blown Asperger's), and can come across differently than intended...if you're offended by something I've said, I probably didn't mean it with such animosity - please take it with a grain of salt. :)
