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InvestmentHouse Weekend Market Summary

http://www.investmenthouse.com/weekendmarketsummary.htm

-Stocks change their character a bit: lack of news and stocks fall instead of rise.
- Geithner complains of collective 'amnesia' about financial reform complaints, but who has the memory problem?
- Large cap indices sport modest losses, but the small caps are already heading to the 50 day EMA.
- Despite the improvement in economic data some very troubling countercurrents have developed.
- No breakdown yet and market rallies can last much longer than common sense, but be careful with your gains.

Nature hates a vacuum and so do markets.

There was little change in the stock market on Friday, but this may be a case where a little change turns out to be a lot of change. It is said that nature abhors a vacuum, and stock markets and financial markets generally feel the same way. Friday there was a news vacuum. There was nothing on schedule to be released given that leap year forced the jobs report to be released next Friday. With nothing on tap and nothing happening on the earnings front, that left the financial stations and investors (and thus the markets) all on their own to divine which direction they wanted to go.

To be fair, there were a few stories out. The Iran claims about the Saudi pipeline explosion were still reverberating, and people were wondering why they were such suckers. Treasury Secretary Giethner had an op-ed in the Wall Street journal. He talked about collective amnesia with respect to those carping about the financial reform bills because they seemed to have already forgotten what got us into trouble. But there are some other issues there. It seems like Mr. Giethner has some of his own amnesia, and that will need to be delved into as well.

What the markets did in that vacuum was one of the bigger stories and perhaps an untold story of the session. SP500 went nowhere. It was unable to hold the move through its prior bear market high, and that was similar to the other indices. In the case of NASDAQ, it was unable to break and hold 3K, and the Dow was unable to close above 13K. Those may not be significant numbers other than in investors' minds, but the action showed something different. Without news what has this market done for the past 2.5-3 months? It has risen. There was a lot of news out. We saw economic data improving almost daily in most respects. There are some troubling things out there. But on days where there was no news, stocks rose. The path of least resistance, as we often hear, was up.

On Friday stocks started the day a bit lower but were trying to move higher. Weak opens in a rising market often lead to higher closes. They were trending upside as the trade got underway. But unlike other sessions, they were unable to close the deal out to the upside, indeed slipping significantly into lunch and managing just a modest late recovery that could not hold into the close. That left the indices with minor losses.

SP500, -0.32%; NASDAQ, -0.43%; Dow, -0.02%; SP600, -1.64%; SOX, -1.04%.

OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. 1.3205 versus 1.3314 euro. The dollar was higher. That would be proper with a strengthening economy, but it was also aided by some worries about Europe yet again. It was a decent move, and it was also up sharply against the yen. That is the main reason for the strong move off the bottom of the pattern. The dollar had traded down to its support and was able to bounce.

Bonds. 1.98% versus 2.03% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds were back up off of their lows that they gapped down to on Thursday. Still in that very narrow range, narrowing down into the point. The question will be whether it breaks out to the upside or if it breaks to the downside and falls as it should given a recovering economy (at least that is what we are told).

Gold. 1,709.20, -13.00. Gold was down a bit on the day. It tanked over $80 on Wednesday, rebounded modestly Thursday, and could not hold any move up on Friday. Gold is showing problems. If the Fed will not perform more Quantitative Easing, you would expect gold to suffer a bit simply because there is not excess inflation. But there is inflation out there. We saw inflation crop up in the GDP numbers and the CPI. This is somewhat strange behavior, but it may just be near term and part of the reverberations of Bernanke's testimony on Wednesday.

Oil. 106.68, -2.16. Oil was down on the session. It was an up and down week for oil. A nice test classic as a matter of fact. A good bounce on Thursday, but then Friday it faded back. That may have been because the pipeline explosion story was revealed to be bogus.

Let us get back to the stock market. To us one of the big stories of the day was that the indices failed to rise with a lack of news as they have done for the last three months basically the life of this rally. Another very important aspect of the day was that even though the large caps had nominal losses, the small caps did not. They sold off over 1.5% and are well on their way to the 50 day EMA. That is something we said the indices overall were going to do when they tested.

We can see by the SP600 and the Russell 2000 index that they sold hard and are on their way to a 50 day EMA test. Nothing is wrong with that. That is something we said likely needed to happen, but they were far and away the downside leaders. Small caps are so important to the economic health of the United States. We have had no jobs created because most jobs come from small companies. I know there have been some articles written lately about how that is not the case because these companies cannot even afford to employ the owners. We are talking about the startups that have new ideas and that generate new jobs and new technologies for the next generation. Thus they create big companies from something small. CSCO and DELL are not big job creators anymore, but they were when they were growing from garages into the huge companies they are today.

Small caps are also very sensitive to domestic issues. Things have been improving in the U.S. The data started get better and better about six months ago. I was chronicling that at the time and talking about how it flew in the face of what ECRI was forecasting. The rollover in small caps is disturbing. It was not a complete rollover, however; it is a normal test, which is what we expect the other indices to do as well. The question is how far it goes.

It was somewhat worrisome to see how the entire week played out. There were several changes under the surface. I have already hit on two the failure to rise and lack of volume and news, and then the small caps suddenly leading sharply to the downside. Of course that had many pundits' tongues wagging on Friday about an economic slowdown joining the party from what we were talking about last week in terms of the ECRI reiteration of its recession call.

Looking at the other indices, of course there is absolutely no rollover yet. The Dow has flattened out a bit as I noted a Thursday. MACD is making a lower high as the index made a higher high. It looks like it could be at the apex of a rounded top. It COULD be. You can read a lot of things into charts that could be there. We have to anticipate what could be there, but then you have to move in on what is actually there.

It is somewhat concerning, and it harkens back to last weekend's talk about the ECRI calling a recession. There is a lot of data that is not improving, and it is key data at that. It is data that has, over time, proved to be the critical in determining whether an economy expands or contracts. That includes income. It includes sales, industrial production, and it also includes the annual GDP growth of course. This past week we saw some issues with these, even though GDP was revised up to a 3% growth rate. You can take out a big jump in inventories that were brought about in large part by slowing sales for both consumers and business. That was one of the worrisome issues with the first and second iterations of the GDP report. This week we saw personal incomes. They were negative when you adjust for inflation. And when you adjust for inflation, spending was flat for the past three months. We are not seeing any improvement, just as the ECRI warned and before the data even before this new data was released.

I do not care how foolishly bullish some are on certain morning financial stations. They see only the good things despite several bad indications. You have to take note of what is happening here. It is a cause for concern if we get $5 per gallon gasoline and it is already over $4 in some places. It is concerning if you are getting negative wage growth thanks to inflation, as we are. It is concerning if you have flat spending adjusted for inflation, as we are. If you have construction spending falling even in warm weather, as seen in January. It was warm but it was down -0.1% when a 1% gain was expected. If you get plummeting Durable Goods Orders as we saw in January even if there was a tax reason for at least part of it. All of these are a reason for concern. Add to that the markets' reaction to Mr. Bernanke's Wednesday testimony. It was a relatively innocuous testimony unless you were expecting some mention of QE3, which was noticeably lacking from his speech. Perhaps that is the rub given what some economic indicators may be leading us to sense.

There could be some issue still to come. You see a drop in gold and a reverberation through the markets on this rather painless speech. That is reminiscent of some of Mr. Greenspan's commentary in years past. He would say certain things that were meant to shock the markets, and then others that were not meant to but did nonetheless. That was the beginning of the end of a particular move in the markets. I am not saying that is what has happened now. As noted in the charts, it is far from what has happened in this situation or where we closed up as of Friday.

Do not forget that if President Obama is reelected, your taxes will go higher because we will see the end of the Bush tax cuts. They will not be renewed. There will be several taxes embedded in the healthcare plan that will kick in as well. And taxes are a tax on the economy. We already talked earlier in the week about the UK's experiment that just gave another textbook example of why raising taxes does not increase revenues. We are going that route, and we will see it happen again.

The market is a handicapper in the long term. Short term it goes back and forth. It has swings that overshoot the market in both directions. It looks down the road, however, and that is where the main trends emerge. Stocks have been moving higher, no question. Most of the move we have seen since the bottom in 2009 was the lift from liquidity by two big Quantitative Easing bouts from the Federal Reserve. We had trouble when QE2 ended, and then Operation Twist came in which provided further liquidity. We also had the liquidity facilities in Europe that helped pull the U.S. markets out of the eurozone from July to October 2011. That is what the market has been riding higher now. But, again, we saw the response to Bernanke's lack of conversation about QE2 in his Wednesday testimony.

We have a lot of economic indicators that are not showing the kind of growth we should have if the economy is really recovering. The ECRI is picking up on that and reiterating its recession call. We also have the long-term implications of taxes increasing in continued regulation through the EPA enforcing Cap and Trade, through the healthcare management, and innumerable executive orders that have led to thousands of new regulations this year alone. These are all policies we have tried before, after the Great Depression and during the 1970's. They did not work. We eventually pulled out of them because we changed policies. But right now the indicators (or the future indicators of elections) are suggesting that these policies will be in place because the president is showing that he is still quite popular. We could have the same policies remain in place, and that is not conducive to rising stock prices, particularly in the long term.

We are not there yet. It is a great leap from the Friday close to what I just went through. The SP500 and Dow are still bumping up against the post bear market highs. The NASDAQ is at a post bear market high. Very difficult to say that we are about to roll over. But, as I have been saying all along, you have to watch for the door. We have the tiger by the tail, but the rally is looking a bit old now. We have been anticipating a pullback. Why not just be ready for one? If it gets worse, it gets worse. Again, it is a long, long leap from where we are now to the scenario of recession and deep trouble I just went through. But we cannot stick our heads in the sand and ignore it by being overly bullish and expecting that the U.S. consumer will be able to withstand no wage growth, flat spending, and gasoline in the $4, $5 or even $6 per gallon range through the summer. We would not come away economically unscathed. It is likely not in the cards, so the question is how bad it will be. We need to be ready, but that does not mean we will stop playing the rallies and make money.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

Friday was a nothing session.

Volume. NASDAQ -7.8%, 1.74B; NYSE -13.5%, 650M. There was no volume driving the moves, so there was no major force at work. You have to factor that in when you consider the moves made by the indices, particularly the SP600.

Breadth. NASDAQ -2.4:1; NYSE -2:1. Getting there but really nothing major with the breadth readings we see in more significant moves. The fact that it was at 2:1 when the Dow and SP500 were virtually flat does show that the small caps were the struggling group.

THE CHARTS

SP500. SP500 is still bumping up against the May and April 2011 peaks. It has not made a clear break from that level by any stretch. It is actually struggling at that level.

DJ30. DJ30 did move through its prior bear market highs, but it has been unable to move forward. It looks to be rounding out the top. It could be at the apex of a rounded top that comes back for a test of the October high near 12,200 or maybe even a little lower. That would be your first target on any pullback because there is nothing overtly nefarious about the economic activity or the market activity. You have to look deeper into the numbers, and a lot of people do not want to do that. Let's face it, we have had a lot of bad times, and people to want enjoy some good times.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ is holding at new post-bear market highs. It has put some distance between its prior peak in the summer of 2011. NASDAQ still looks just fine. It is wearing out a bit. MACD is a bit lower, but nothing major at all. It is nothing that would suggest a major tank or rollover. Indeed, if it does test, you would expect it to maybe fill this gap from early February and find support at that level.

SP600. The small caps are the issue. They were down 1.6% on the session, but they are still well above the 50 day EMA, even though they are selling hard and leading the market lower. It looks like they will hit it, but we will have to see how it reacts there. There is plenty of support from a shelf back in January. A shelf of price consolidation as well as the 50 day EMA. You can also see other levels at the same point as the 50 day EMA that have held in the past. That would be around 440.

SOX. SOX was worrisome as well, down 1%. A lot of semiconductors stocks are looking somewhat shaky right now, suddenly turning a little negative when it looked like they would be able to supply support for the rest of the market.

LEADERSHIP

Semiconductors. TXN has been performing fairly well. It is back down toward the bottom of its range, and it suddenly got heavy again. We are seeing that in a lot of stocks. All of a sudden they are just a bit heavy, losing their momentum. ALTR was a leader to the upside, and it has struggled and broken down. We are playing SIMO short. It has been breaking to the downside as well. Some problems, yes, but overall semiconductors are trying to hold up. BRCM is one of the key stocks because it is so related to AAPL. It is selling off. It has something of a little head and shoulders, a top that it put in at the October peak. Maybe we are due for a test to fill this gap or maybe a lower gap. Nothing major yet; it is just showing the same kind of sluggishness and lack of momentum as other semiconductors.

Manufacturing/Machinery. Manufacturing and equipment looks a little top heavy as well. CAT is putting in a rounded top. It has not broken lower, but MACD has made a lower high as the stock has just put in a little higher high. Maybe at the apex of the top, similar to the Dow. DE broke lower, tried to hold, and it is starting to move to the downside below the 50 day EMA. BGC looked good recently with a nice bounce. But all of a sudden its character has changed somewhat. It is trying to break below a key support level, and it was falling pretty hard on Friday. A lot of these stocks started to show wear-and-tear on Friday. CRDN broke to the downside. A little head and shoulders action breaking downside as well.

There are some problems with semiconductors and those important manufacturing stocks. IRF was breaking below the 50 day EMA. They are not the only ones, but they have been leaders. They have been performing well and are now struggling. You always have to watch for that because the market is made up of leaders. Leaders, by definition, move ahead of the market. While the indices may still be posting their slow, steady uptrends, some of the leaders are starting to have trouble and break to the downside. CMG is posting virtually a move straight to the upside for the past two months. You rarely see moves like this. This does not last forever, but for now it is. That leads us to the quandary of what we will do over the next few weeks.

THE MARKET

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX. The VIX is at 17 or so. That is a level where the market has found trouble in the past and sold off, spiking the volatility reading higher. These spikes coincided with volatility readings at these levels. I hate to use this as an indicator because volatility can remain low for a long period of time while the market continues to run higher.

VIX: 17.29; +0.03
VXN: 18.23; -0.45
VXO: 15.2; -0.03

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.95; -0.06

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 51.1% versus 51.1%. Holding lower from 54.8%. Even as stocks continued to rise, bulls faded. That is a decent indication and does not show excessive ebullience. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. Now the indices are back at that level and so are the bulls. All the more reason to watch this action at the prior highs. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal but now dissipating. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 25.5% versus 26.6%. Right back down to the 25% level. Bulls slacken, bears slacken. Kind of a mixed signal and getting low enough to show some wear in the market. Was 28.7% a month back. After spending weeks at 30%ish, bulls are faltering big time. Not at a bearish level but they are growing more confident even as the market hits the prior highs and is not blasting on through. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.

NASDAQ

Stats: -12.78 points (-0.43%) to close at 2976.19
Volume: 1.74B (-7.84%)

Up Volume: 659.53M (-530.47M)
Down Volume: 1.07B (+463.35M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.43 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.29 to 1

New Highs: 75 (-11)
New Lows: 25 (0)

SP500/NYSE

Stats: -4.46 points (-0.32%) to close at 1369.63
NYSE Volume: 650M (-13.45%)

Up Volume: 1.21B (-1.47B)
Down Volume: 2.06B (+950M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.03 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.09 to 1

New Highs: 108 (-41)
New Lows: 18 (+9)

DJ30

Stats: -2.73 points (-0.02%) to close at 12977.57
Volume DJ30: 94M shares Friday versus 139M shares Thursday.

MONDAY

The first thing we will do is let positions that are running continue to run. We will not cut them off simply because we have concerns about what the future may hold. Remember that I am talking longer term trends versus nearer term trends. We also have to look and see what is coming up for the week. We have some Factory Orders and ISM Services. Factory Orders will be very important given the Durable Goods numbers. We have ADP employment, one of the precursors to the Friday jobs report. We also have Productivity revisions for Q4. We all know how productivity destroys jobs and makes the unemployment rate go higher (or so say the President and his top advisor).

We have Challenger Job Cuts along with the Initial Jobless Claims, and then Friday is the biggie. The Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to be good although I believe they are sandbagging it from the expectations. You might ask why jobs would be good if things are getting worse as some are saying. I have said that could be a possible route the economy takes in 2012. Jobs lag. The economy has been improving for six months, and jobs have been following it higher. If it turns back down, jobs will be the last to turn.

We will let existing positions run if they are running. It is hard to complain about CMG. It is hard to complain about what RL is doing or LULU. I am not complaining, although I could probably find some reason. But why bother? They are making us money, so let your winners run. We will also do what we have done with the stocks that started to struggle. We have gotten rid of the ones breaking lower and having trouble. We did it all week and the week before. Some stocks are getting tired, no doubt. They have had good runs and are starting to break lower. ARAY was one we took off of the table on Friday. It was not a major collapse. It had a nice pullback, but then it started to drop further. Maybe it is just a shakeout, but it fell below its 20 day EMA and we did not want to mess around with it. We locked in the rest of the gain. We got a nice gain off of this one, and we will see if it sets up again.

That is a key point. We can always get back into these if this market will continue to move to the upside. We can move back in and make our gains. Then we have to worry about new plays. That also means if new plays keep presenting themselves to the upside, then we are take advantage of them. We would be foolish not to. This week several stocks said they wanted to move to the upside and started to make the break, so we moved in with them. That is what you have to do. As long as they present themselves and they are quality, you move with them.

At the same time, there are downside plays that are showing up, and you have to take advantage of them. HMSY and one we moved into on Friday. It has rolled. It put in the lower MACD as it made a series of tops, and it broke to the downside. KLAC is one we have been in for a few days now, and it looks like it is trying to turn back down. It has not made that sharp break, but it is showing that same lower MACD, lower highs and rolling over.

This is one of those times in the market where we have to look both ways before we cross the street. We can play some upside, we can play some downside, but things are getting a bit more interesting even though the indices not really doing much. Indeed it is because they are not doing much after such a long run that it is interesting. But that in and of itself would not do it unless you start see the breakdowns from important stocks. These are stocks that helped lead the market to the upside and are struggling. If more and more start to break down, obviously the move will wear out and fall. That is when we have to take shelter, protect our gains, and play the downside.

It is a natural transition. We have started having more and more plays on the report to the downside. We still have a predominant number to the upside because the trends in the market are still up. We are still getting presented great upside opportunities. But as things turn choppier, which they typically would do after this type of slow, upside run, then we will start to see more plays breaking lower. We need to patiently wait for good setups and move in. There are always some early leaders to the downside. There are always early leaders to the upside as well. But most stocks take their time about changing direction. We just need to be patient and let them show us if they will break to the downside. Then we can play them when they make definitive breaks.

It could be a bit rockier ahead. It could be a bit choppier. We will look both ways. If the market wants to continue to the upside, if Bernanke announces or hints at some QE3, then it will go higher and we will gladly let it run to the upside. We will position ourselves accordingly with more upside plays. If it is not forthcoming and it turns out that his seemingly innocuous statement on Wednesday turns out to be a game changer, then it will happen naturally. We will position ourselves and make the transition that will show up in the plays, and we will take what the market gives.

I will see you on Monday and count down to the jobs report. Have a great weekend!

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2976.19
Resistance:
3026 from 10/2000 low
3042 from 5/2000 low

Support:
The 20 day EMA at 2931
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 2835
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2672
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2572 is the November 2-11 gap down point
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2546 is the early September 2011 gap down point
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2469 is the November 2010 low
2441 is the November 2011 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 intraday low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low

S&P 500: Closed at 1369.63

Resistance:
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows

Support:
1357 is the July 2011 peak
The 20 day EMA at 1354
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
The 50 day EMA at 1322
1318.51 is the May 2011 low
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
The 200 day SMA at 1258
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low

Dow: Closed at 12,977.57
Resistance:
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

Support:
The 20 day EMA at 12,892
12,876 is the May high
12,754 is the July intraday peak
The 50 day EMA at 12,649
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The 200 day SMA at 12,009
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low

Economic Calendar

February 27 - Monday
- Pending Home Sales, January (10:00): 2.0% actual versus 1.0% expected, -1.9% prior (revised from -3.5%)

February 28 - Tuesday
- Durable Orders, January (8:30): -4.0% actual versus -1.4% expected, 3.2% prior (revised from 3.0%)
- Durable Orders -ex T, January (8:30): -3.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 2.1% prior (revised from 2.2%)
- Case-Shiller 20-city, December (9:00): -4.0% actual versus -3.6% expected, -3.8% prior (revised from -3.7%)
- Consumer Confidence, February (10:00): 70.8 actual versus 62.5 expected, 61.5 prior (revised from 61.1)

February 29 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 02/25 (7:00): -0.3% actual versus -4.5% prior
- MBA Mortgage Purchas, 02/25 (7:00): -4.5% prior
- GDP - Second Estimate, Q4 (8:30): 3.0% actual versus 2.8% expected, 2.8% prior
- GDP Deflator - 2nd Estimate, Q4 (8:30): 0.9% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior
- Chicago PMI, February (9:45): 64.0 actual versus 60.0 expected, 60.2 prior
- Crude Inventories, 02/25 (10:30): 4.160M actual versus 1.633M prior

March 1 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 02/25 (8:30): 351K actual versus 355K expected, 353K prior (revised from 351K)
- Continuing Claims, 02/18 (8:30): 3402K actual versus 3425K expected, 3404K prior (revised from 3392K)
- Personal Income, January (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.5% prior
- Personal Spending, January (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.0% prior
- PCE Prices - Core, January (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%)
- ISM Index, February (10:00): 52.4 actual versus 54.7 expected, 54.1 prior
- Construction Spending, January (10:00): -0.1% actual versus 1.0% expected, 1.4% prior (revised from 1.5%)
- Auto Sales, February (14:00): 5.00M prior
- Truck Sales, February (14:00): 5.73M prior

Friday:

Nothing!!!

March 5 - Monday
- Factory Orders, January (10:00): -1.9% expected, 1.1% prior
- ISM Services, February (10:00): 56.0 expected, 56.8 prior

March 7 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 03/03 (7:00): -0.3% prior
- ADP Employment Change, February (8:15): 220K expected, 170K prior
- Productivity-Revised, Q4 (8:30): 0.9% expected, 0.7% prior
- Unit Labor Costs - Revised, Q4 (8:30): 1.1% expected, 1.2% prior
- Crude Inventories, 03/03 (10:30): 4.160M prior
- Consumer Credit, January (15:00): $13.4B expected, $19.3B prior

March 8 - Thursday
- Challenger Job Cuts, February (7:30): 38.9% prior
- Initial Jobless Claims, 03/03 (8:30): 355K expected, 351K prior
- Continuing Claims, 02/25 (8:30): 3405K expected, 3402K prior

March 9 - Friday
- Nonfarm Payrolls, February (8:30): 207K expected, 243K prior
- Nonfarm Private Payrolls, February (8:30): 220K expected, 257K prior
- Unemployment Rate, February (8:30): 8.3% expected, 8.3% prior
- Hourly Earnings, February (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
- Average Workweek, February (8:30): 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
- Trade Balance, January (8:30): -$48.1B expected, -$48.8B prior
- Wholesale Inventories, January (10:00): 0.6% expected, 1.0% prior