Excelon Corp (EXC)

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Todays Chi Tribune indicates that the Emanuel administration has brokered a deal to shut down the 2 remaining coal burning power plants located in Chicago. The Fisk plant will close by the end of this year, the Crawford plant by the end of 2014. Midwest indicated that based on the current market conditions,the Waukegan and Joliet plants are unlikely to be upgraded and would likely close before the end of 2014. The State Line plant in Hammond has already closed. This looks to be a substantial slice of the coal burning plant competition that EXC has faced in the Chicago area.

It looks like the cheap nat gas generated electricity is taking a big bite out of the economics of coal burning to generate electricity. They simply cannot justify the air emission upgrade costs when the competition from low price nat gas plants is so fierce.

I bought a small stake in EXC this morning. I'm figuring that the elimination of coal burning plants combined with Congresses elimination of the wind generation tax credits last week will eliminate or at least slow competing cheap power sources and start to stabilize the market.

The nat gas producers (See CHK) are starting to curb output in order to stabilize prices. These factors could lead to power pricing improvements.

On the distribution side, I'm hopeful that EXC can execute the grid improvements efficiently (the IL general Assembly approved rate hikes to modernize the Illinois grid in December)so that should help EXC distribution profitability or at least reduce the drag of having to maintain the grid.

Nat gas pricing is the key and I can't believe it can go much lower from here.

FL

http://www.fiskandcrawford.com/about.html

http://chicagoist.com/2012/02/29/deal_reached_to_shut_down_fisk_craw.php