Biotech Values

[biomaven0]

I personally expect the FDA to follow the AC recommendation - not sure about the timing though, as the REMS negotiations can always be slow, and this one is particularly tricky.

I accordingly think the stock is still cheap here - people just haven't gotten their heads around just how big this drug could be. So there must still be substantial approval risk still baked into the stock price.

I really don't know what their plans for marketing the drug are - big pharma could be really scared of yet another diet-drug debacle, but on the other hand we are talking very significant revenue here, even for a big pharma. I'm not sure the drug would even require much in the way of marketing - anyhow the REMS might restrict marketing some. But I'm not sure VVUS would be up to dealing with formulary issues by itself. Logically a big pharma would simply buy them. Note they also have a somewhat differentiated (somewhat quicker acting, more selective) ED drug also up for approval. That would be a complicating factor for 3 of the big pharma.

Peter