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Re: Paul Fakler post# 4567

Thursday, 01/30/2003 8:45:07 PM

Thursday, January 30, 2003 8:45:07 PM

Post# of 13554
Worries? Who, me? Are you kidding? I've got more worries than you can shake a stick at.

For starters, my predicted rally into the close didn't. Instead we closed about 20 cents above the lows.

My intraday oscillators made higher highs while the COMP made lower highs.

The oscillators on my shorter intraday timeframes (5, 15, 30 min) are burying themselves so deep they look like they're trying to run off the bottom of the chart to escape. The 60 minute is stochastic is approaching the 50 mark, and the 120 minute stochastic has rolled over completely at about the 40-45 level.

The red (naughty) lines on my intraday ADX's mostly look ballistic.

Price today formed what may turn out to be a wedge but which looks like a channel so far, so there's nothing there to stop things.

Over the past four days we've taken four (daily) knocks at the 1320 area -- three is supposed to be sufficient for just about anything.

The bollinger bands on the daily have room for yet more down before they are even touched, and in a strong move they can stretch like rubber.

SOX is below it's neckline:


BTK fell out of its triangle and can't get back in:


Heck, I'm not even going to bother with the McOscillator, NASI, BP-indexes, the dollar, interest rates, gold, etc...

On the other hand, it is beginning to look as though we are not going to have a tradeable bounce prior to the next shortermediate low. If this is the case, then to my mind it means that things will get wound up tighter/faster. In other words, I think that the risk to the down side may be building up faster than the risk to the up side.

On the third hand, VIX looks like it needs to go lower in order to complete an ED/wedge.



And VXN looks like it painted a bear flag today, which needs to be resolved rather quickly.



Does any of this make any sense whatsoever?

p.s. I'm essentially flat going into tomorrow, and I have until the end of the day to decide what, if anything to do.

(:


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