Biotech Values

[oc631]

Before buying the dip I would keep these simple points in mind


1- GILD paid nearly 11B for VRUS.
2- GILD was up over 40% (before today) since the deal was announced.
3- They lost PSI-938 after signing (this is big IMO).


How will the market react if viral rebound is seen in larger studies amongst treatment naive GT1 patients? How about GT2/GT3 patients which is much less likely IMO (yet unexpected)? What if INX-189 proves safe and has a flawless resistance profile across genotypes? If this were to happen then BMY would hold all the cards after approval at a fraction of the cost.

GS-7977 gets straight A's for efficacy, tolerability, and safety but now the strength of the drugs resistance profile when used orally in combination with ribavirin is in question. GS-7977 will get approved and should enjoy the first to market advantage in the oral space but one should question GILD's ROI.