Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Sudan fears for peace after Garang
By Mark Doyle
BBC News world affairs correspondent

Aug 2 2005, 01:23 PM
A period of mourning began on Tuesday for the southern Sudanese leader John Garang, who died in a helicopter crash on Saturday.

The unexpected news of John Garang's death has shocked Sudan
At the same time, Sudanese politicians and foreign diplomats have scrambled to try to save the recently signed peace deal between north and south Sudan.

Under Garang's tough leadership of the south, that deal ended two decades of war.

On the face of it, everything is being done to hold the peace process together.

The former rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement have quickly named a successor to John Garang - his number two, Commander Salva Kiir.

Mr Garang's widow, Rebecca, has called for calm.

And international diplomats have rushed out appeals for the late leader's vision of a united, secular Sudan to be respected.

But all this is happening because there are very real fears the peace process could fall apart.

Divisions

Mr Garang was a tough leader of the mainly Christian south who pulled off a double trick.

He controlled ethnic and political divisions among African Sudanese, so presenting the south as one block at the negotiating table.


Salva Kiir Mayardit has taken control of the SPLM
And he brokered a subtle deal with the mainly Arab north by agreeing to a six-year, north-south coalition government - a sort of breathing space before the south would have a vote on full independence, something many more radical southerners say they want.

The fear now is that ethnic and political divisions in the south could re-emerge.

There are also fears that some members of the Arab elite in Khartoum, who resisted the peace deal until the last moment because it watered down their power, may encourage those divisions.

The new southern leader, Salva Kiir, is a military man who stayed close to John Garang when many others fell out with him openly.

Mr Kiir has a strong following among the southern troops, but his political skills on the international stage are less tested.

What is clear is that he has a hard act to follow.

Juggling act

Mr Kiir will become First Vice President of the whole of the Republic of Sudan, and President of the newly-formed entity, the Government of South Sudan.

It will be a juggling act which would test the most experienced of politicians.

In the south, Salva Kiir will have to manage the huge expectations of southerners, most of whom, because of the war, have been trapped in a stone-age vista with virtually no roads, hospitals or schools.



The international community has a big stake in Sudan

Southern war refugees who live in shanty towns around the capital Khartoum erupted in anger when John Garang's death was announced.

These riots demonstrated the lack of trust most southerners feel towards the Arab elite who have dominated government since independence in 1956.

But Mr Kiir will also have to manage expectations in the north.

Some of the marginalised Arab groups support Garang's vision of a united, secular Sudan and some northern (mainly Arab) Sudanese were among the huge crowds that welcomed the late leader to Khartoum last month.

These marginalised northerners see the core of the Khartoum government as Islamist, undemocratic and corrupt - they will expect Mr Kiir, along with northern opposition leaders, to show them a lead.

Of course, on the other side of the political fence, some members of the Arab elite see their secular opponents as apostates.

Sharia (Islamic) law remains in place in the north under the peace agreement.

Array of foreigners

As if this domestic scene were not complicated enough, Mr Kiir will also have to deal with the international ramifications of the Sudanese conflict.

The United States was a strong backer of the peace agreement, partly, some observers suspect, because Washington hopes the arrival of southern leaders in the capital will weaken the hand of the Islamists (the al-Qaeda leader, Osama bin Laden, once lived in Khartoum).

The Americans have sent two senior envoys to Sudan.

They will join an array of other foreigners who have a stake in one of Africa's most broken - but potentially most important - countries.

Kenyans, Ugandans and Ethiopians helped broker the power-sharing arrangement.

The United Nations has a significant presence too, as does the African Union in the shape of a peace monitoring force in the western Darfur region.

China is a major investor, not least in the oil sector.

All of these foreigners will want a slice of Mr Kiir's time as he takes up the greatest challenge of his political life.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/4738233.stm