Biotech Values

[iwfal]

MNTA -

Per the latest Credit Suisse write up, they estimate Watson's retail sales of Enox adding about a dime per year in earnings. Now using a little commonsense, would you believe WPI would risk their whole enterprise to earn a silly 5 cents (prior to trial).

They know something we don't.

And MNTA/NVS, 'knowing' that WPI is immune and A* has no assets, didn't settle immediately upon the stay - must indicate they know something you don't. (The point is it works both ways - somebody is wrong and our job is to assess who, not slavishly assume one or the other is completely right.)

FYI My personal opinion is that the indemnification is partial - i.e. that WPI will get hit with somewhere between 40 and 70 percent of the total damages plus extra damages. Combine this with a little bit of irrationality on the part of WPI and you get a dumb launch. (I tend to trust Momenta management as more rational than >90% of biotechs.)

PS I also think there is some chance that the scenario (voiced earlier on this board) of WPI choosing not to sell to their assigned customers turns out to be true so only A* is selling. It would be the smart play for WPI.