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InvestmentHouse Weekend Market Summary

http://www.investmenthouse.com/weekendmarketsummary.htm

- GOOG has its impact but the flat close was not bad action all things considered.
- DJ30 leads as MSFT, IBM, INTC rally on earnings.
- Existing home sales up 5%, but still distressed and cash sales.
- Expecting some more upside then the test.
- Three options for the test to come.

GOOG blocks another upside session but stocks perform decently.

It was not much of a day for the stock market. SP500 closed up just 0.88 points. It could not even muster a point. That in itself was not necessarily a bad thing considering that GOOG was slammed on its earnings report. That did not seem to hold sway, at least for Friday. Looking at the results, there are a lot of currency exchange issues that caused the numbers to be lower than anticipated. If GOOG would get a bit better at managing its currency along the lines of IBM or other big international players, its numbers would have been just fine. As it was, the stock was kicked around. We will have to wait until next week to see if the support at 580 (where it gapped and tested in October and then tested again in November) turns out to be a support level and people see this for what it is and move in.

Other stocks performed well and offset the GOOG problem. IBM surged upside. INTC posted a nice gain as well. MSFT sported a very solid 5.5% gain. Strong action offset the GOOG weakness, thus we saw the Dow (where all three of those stocks reside) post the market-leading 0.75% gain Friday. NASDAQ had to struggle with GOOG. There was also a drop in AAPL with the stock falling 1.75%. NASDAQ still held up pretty well, falling less than 2 points on the session.

You can see the issues when looking at the intraday chart. There was the drop in futures, the choppy morning trade, but then an afternoon recovery. It was a pretty impressive afternoon recovery, indeed, as the indices surged upside late in the day. NASDAQ's chart is very instructive. The index started to the downside, but it traded in a 10-point move five times. From an early low to peak, then back and forth until a furious late rally pushed the index basically flat on the session. Expiration can be volatile. When you look at NASDAQ's intraday chart, there is no doubt it was volatile on Friday.

The indices managed to pull off a decent day despite the problems with GOOG. As I talked about on Thursday night, GOOG's results seemed to be isolated to itself. I have already talked about the currency issue, and GOOG had some problems with that. That insulated the rest of the market somewhat.

SP500, +0.07%; NASDAQ, -0.06%; Dow, +0.76%; SP600, +0.3%; SOX, +0.54%; NASDAQ 100, -0.2%

There was news out on the day, no doubt. It was mostly to do with earnings, but there was some posted scheduled economic data. Friday was the day for Existing Home Sales, and they came in at 5%. That was a bit better than expectations. You have to look at the mix of the number, however, to see the full picture. Distress sales made up 32% of the market. Investor sales were 21% of the sales. Cash sales were 34%. These are still indications that the housing market is in the pre-recovery mode where the buyers are those still looking for investments or rock-bottom prices before the market returns. It always happens before the market returns. The question is when it will return. An important feature is that prices were down 2.5%. We still have not found bottom on pricing. That makes sense given there is still speculation on the downside. It will turn someday.

A lot of the other news out had to do with Europe. Greece met with its creditors wanting debt swaps. No success today, and that makes the third day in a row. They will meet again on Saturday and try to get that resolved. That is a bit disconcerting. We do not want to see Europe thrust back in the limelight because we know what happens then. The market starts to trade in the eurozone or head back that way when Europe starts to emerge as a problem. There will be some issues, no doubt. It would help if Greece could get things under control.

Other than that, there was not a lot of news outside of earnings on Friday. The week before was quite impressive with all of the data that came out. Overall it was pretty good. It continues to show a recovery in the U.S. It is slow and painstaking, but nonetheless a recovery. That is helping drive stock prices higher as we have seen on this run into earnings. The question we have heading into next week, given that the market survived GOOG, is whether this move can continue to the upside toward that April/May into July highs from 2011 that mark the top of the recovery off of the bear market lows.

It has been a good run. We basically got what we have been looking for but I think there is still more upside, particularly based on the reaction to GOOG even with AAPL down on Friday. The indices held their own. A bit tired, but I think they can squeeze out more upside before they turn down for a more significant test of that October high. That will be the key. NASDAQ and the SOX just broke above that October peak this week. They will need to test that. It will happen, and it is just a matter of when. We are looking for a bit more squeeze to the upside on the next earnings out early in the week. Then we might get the turn to make that test. That is nice. That gives us a little more upside squeeze. We can take gain on that move and then let stocks slide back down and test, and then maybe set up some new buys. That will be the litmus for the move. That is the test of the October high that marked the peak when SOX tried to break out of the eurozone range after that ugly July-August selloff that blew them off the tops from 2011.

OTHER MARKETS

The other markets were struggling, at least in the anti-Europe trade. What do I mean by that? The dollar and bonds have been inverse with respect to Europe. When Europe is better, bonds and the dollar are worse and vice versa. With Europe somewhat on the mend this week, the dollar was down along with bonds.

Dollar. 1.2928 versus 1.2936 euro. It was basically flat on the day, but it was down for the week on the better perception out of Europe. That is okay. The dollar should be stronger if the U.S. economy rises, and the dollar has been rising. What has been taking it back is when Europe feels better. We have a fear play and an economic recovery play. When you see how much the dollar is hammered back when Europe is in play, you realize that while there is some economic strength adding to the move upside, a lot of it has to do with fear out of Europe even at this juncture.

Bonds. 2.03% versus 1.98% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds had a tough week. They are breaking down now. It was not long ago that yields were at 1.8%. They are starting to rise. They should rise in a stronger economy, and they are falling because of a little perceived improvement in Europe. Indeed, they broke the 50 day EMA. They are still near a support level, so they can still hold up and continue this range that started in November. It has been trading in this range after flattening out the move to the upside. This is a key test. It is the first time it has come back down to these lows it hit in early December. We will see if it can hold and bounce or if there will be an appreciable selloff which would push interest rates to the upside. That is in contrast to the idea that the Fed would announce a QE3.

Last week I said that was a possibility, and it is one that may be announced somewhat soon. There is an FOMC meeting next week that concludes on Wednesday. Some are betting that there would be a QE3 announced. As I have said before, if the economy is recovering then there is no reason to announce that at all. We have enough debt as it is and enough problems with inflation. Even though they are not showing up yet, it is getting baked into the cake, and we have to worry about that. We do not want to chance sparking it when there is no need.

But maybe there is a need since it is an election year. As I said last week, the Fed chairman knows who butters his bread. He will not be around long if a Republican is elected. A little bit of Quantitative Easing goes a long way with the stock market, and that goes a long way with election results. I hate to play conspiracy theorist and say that people in the government might try to manipulate things for political gain. Heaven forbid. We have to wake up, leave Alice in Wonderland, and face the real world. It could definitely still happen, but bonds are not indicating that would be the case. They are starting to peak lower, and that means yields are going higher as you would expect in an improving economy.

Gold. 1,663.60, +9.00. Gold just hung out on the session. Not much of a move as it hangs out just over the 200 day EMA. It has bounced and has run out of a bit of steam below that upper channel line. It may trade back down in the channel. We are trying to see a more definitive pattern set up where it will break one way or the other. Right now it is channel bound, however, and it looks like it wants to come back down. Maybe this channel will narrow and it will have a downward-pointing wedge that eventually leads to a breakout. Right now it will have to prove it. It will have to get a better pattern before we can actually play one of those moves.

Oil. 98.25, -2.10. Oil had a rough Friday. It was ugly. It is down to the 50 day EMA again, but it is still in its range. That range runs from 96 up to 104. It is holding at the 50 day EMA just as it did a week ago. This is not necessarily a serious problem for oil. It made a lower high, but it is not tanking. It is just range trading for now.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

The internals tell an interesting story on the day.

Volume. -1.4% NASDAQ, 1.95B; +13.5% NYSE, 850M. Volume was not anything great. That is okay. You can have upside, as seen on the Dow, and have a good volume surge. That is exactly what we were seeing on Friday. There were some big volume movers from MSFT, INTC, and IBM. Those are traded on the NYSE as well as the NASDAQ. A lot of the volume we saw on the Dow was attributable to these stocks. That could be a positive. You get upside volume from buying, and that is always a good thing.

Breadth. NASDAQ +1.5:1; NYSE +1.4:1. NASDAQ was down on the day. It recovered late, but that usually does not catch up with the actual breadth. It takes awhile for a choppy day for the breadth to catch up with the final move. It did not have enough time to do that. A couple of large cap names -- GOOG and AAPL -- were holding down the index. Overall, there were more advancers and decliners on the NASDAQ. That was mirrored by the NASDAQ 100 which was down on the day. Much more than NASDAQ. Breadth on the NYSE was unspectacular. It was more in line with what we saw from the NYSE indices.

CHARTS

SP500. SP500 managed an ever-so-slight gain on top of a solid move for the week. That began on Wednesday with a good upside break. It tried to move Tuesday and failed. Wednesday it sealed the deal, and on Thursday it put in another good session. A couple of solid back-to-back days. I would have loved to see a third solid upside day, but it was not going to happen Friday with the GOOG story out there. SP500 is still in good shape. It is at 1315. I have talked before about the initial resistance being at 1345. Looking into July, it is at 1355. There is a bit more room it can run. No problem. We can squeeze another day or two to the upside, and it will look just great. After that, where does it go? It has already tested the move over October once. It will likely have to come back and test again.

The question we have to deal with is whether the market will test back to the October high and then move for a breakout over the 2011 highs. Is it going to move higher and then just collapse and trade mid-range? Or trade lower back down into the other range, trading in a very large trading range? Or will it just break down, tumble, and just forget it? That would forecast a really bad 2012 in economic terms.

Likely we will get a range trade in this higher range. Maybe not over the October peak, but in this consolidation level anywhere from 1225 up to 1260 as the bottom. This is not a purely technical read, but I am combining what is coming out of Europe and the United States. We could see a very nice trading range for SP500 that would give us a lot of opportunity to trade up and down. You have to love trading ranges. If we get a higher trading range, we can make some really good money on that. That is a preview of what I think may happen down the road.

DJ30. DJ30 was strong, moving well. It is at 12,720. No problem. The issue is the twin peaks from July are at 12,753. We are only 34 or 35 points away from that eye right now thanks to the strength of MSFT, INTC, and IBM and their results that boosted the index on Friday. It is almost at the initial peaks. These are the foothills of the prior highs. This one on the Dow was in early May at 12,876. If you want to look at it that way, we have plenty of room to the upside. 150 points more for the Dow. It will start feeling that problem. It may get shoved back down. That would take the rest of the market with it, most likely, on that test of the October high. It will test it again. This would be a great place for it to hold or set up a trading range from 12,000 to almost 13,000. Yes, Virginia, we can make money on that kind of trading range.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ was down on the session, but virtually flat. It gapped lower but recovered and still held above that October high. NASDAQ will have to test this. It will be the same issue. Will it hold or will it fold? You know the story. We were looking for a little more upside. If GOOG would have played along, that would have been nice, but we have some important moves next week. That includes AAPL after the close on Tuesday. It has had a very solid month of gains, and it is starting to get some taken out of it on Friday. Are we seeing it already sell back ahead of the numbers that have grown with the anticipation that they will be really solid? Maybe it has. AAPL has been very strong. I would be surprised if it continued to sell into the number. I expect a bit more upside.

SP600. SP600 put in a modest gain. It is struggling a bit. It is at 438. That puts it right at some peaks from February and March and then some lows from May. It is getting at the point where it will have some headwinds buffeting it, and it will have to come back and test as well. The question is when. Do they continue on for another few days or a week? That remains to be seen.

SOX. The SOX posted another gain after gapping lower. It moved up 0.5%. Very solid action, but it is also approaching resistance at 423. It closed at 414, just 9 points away.

All of the indices are getting to the upper reaches of this range. Or at least where I think they will be moving. I anticipate more gain. You never know how far these can run. I am just being realistic and noting that the indices have put in a good four-week run. They have broken out. They will maybe go a bit higher toward the top of the range, and then they will probably run out of some gas and have to test. That is totally normal. We are playing this move. If we get another good upside session, then we will probably be banking a lot more gain and then look for some downside. Another day or two, and that really puts positions in good shape. We can get out or at least lighten up some more as we were doing this week. Then we will see how the test plays out.

LEADERSHIP

Many groups this week contributed to the upside move.

Semiconductor/Tech. Semiconductors generated a big push to the upside. Some of them continued moves that were already in place. Nice moves such as KLAC that put in a wonderful upside run and extended it with the continued break higher. Telecom stocks are starting to show life as well. IDCC is starting to turn the corner after a long selloff, but it is forming something of a rounded bottom. HLIT is starting to turn as well. NTGR started a nice move up this week. It is continuing a great pattern thus far with a cup with handle breakout. Technology is obviously helping lead the move, but we also saw many other areas start higher.

Industrial. CAT and TEX were moving nicely to the upside.

Financial. Financials continue to move higher. JPM came back from a problem with its earnings. WFC continued higher with its good report.

Medical/Healthcare. Healthcare and medical has been one of the real pleasant surprises. There are stocks that have just been racing to the upside out of really nice bottoms. OFIX was running nicely to the upside. ARAY posted a great week to the upside out of another nice rounded bottom. This is what I talk about. You can pick the nice gains, the fruit of the nice patterns that set up when they make their upside breaks. It has been fairly easy money to do that. The question is whether we will be able to come up with more of those -- or will the market be able to come up with more of those -- and move to the upside in order to continue the overall market's move?

Miscellaneous. SOL had a nice rounded bottom or trend reversal and a break to the upside. WYNN is breaking back to the upside, or so it seems. We will see, but it could help produce more of that next wave to the upside. SONC has rising MACD, and it looks like it is trying to set one of these bottoms that we have seen in other stocks in the past that have broken to the upside. We will keep eyes out and see where the money is going. Maybe we can pick more of this easy fruit as they make that turn off the bottom and start the move up to form that cup.

THE MARKET

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 18.28; -1.59
VXN: 18.97; -1.3
VXO: 16.99; -1.87

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.8; +0.1

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 50.0% versus 51.1%. Market up but bulls lower. Still moving higher but encountering resistance in this 50% area. Over the past three months a steady increase but slowing here. Still probing the overdone range and could be part of the picture that tops out the current in January, but it is not there yet. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal but now dissipating. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 29.8% versus 29.8%. Holding flat, again flat lining at 30%. Bears are not growing but they are not necessarily buying into the upside move. Back and forth around 30% where it has flat-lined for 8 weeks. Again, Bears remain skeptical. Skeptics in the face of a move is a good sign the move continues. Lower but not anywhere near suggesting investors are carefree. The average the past month and more is 30%. The index spent seven weeks over the 35% threshold considered a bullish indicator. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.

NASDAQ

Stats: -1.63 points (-0.06%) to close at 2786.7
Volume: 1.948B (-1.42%)

Up Volume: 1.11B (-150M)
Down Volume: 805.49M (+114.72M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.54 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.4 to 1

New Highs: 56 (-23)
New Lows: 11 (+1)

SP500/NYSE

Stats: +0.88 points (+0.07%) to close at 1315.38
NYSE Volume: 850M (+13.48%)

Up Volume: 2.11B (-920M)
Down Volume: 1.67B (+280M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.39 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.9 to 1

New Highs: 134 (-51)
New Lows: 15 (-7)

DJ30

Stats: +96.5 points (+0.76%) to close at 12720.48
Volume DJ30: 255M shares Friday versus 148M shares Thursday.

MONDAY

Next week there is more data out, but it does not really start until Wednesday. We have the FOMC rate decision at the end of the day. Before that are Pending Home Sales and Crude Inventories. On Thursday we have Jobless Claims, of course. We also get Durable Orders and New Homes Sales. They will be important. On Friday there is Michigan Sentiment and also the GDP. We will see what the numbers are that the government puts out. Who knows what it really is because it is always revised.

There is a lot of data, but it will be all about earnings. There are some huge names out starting on Monday. Then there is AAPL after the close on Tuesday. It will be a big earnings week, no doubt about it. Our plan remains the same as it has been. I think we will get more upside. We watched how the market acted today. We were ready to start pulling the trigger and taking more off the table. But even with GOOG falling and AAPL falling, NASDAQ held up fairly well. The rest of the market also held up fairly well. I think there could be some more anticipation of those AAPL earnings out on Tuesday. That gives the market a couple of days to move to the upside. If we get that, we will take more off the table, lightening it up at the logical points.

What do I mean by logical points? When the market moves back up toward these prior highs. It has made a good run and fought its way back. Higher lows, higher highs. And now it is moving up to those levels. Do you think there is enough new news out there to actually drive the indices through these? Maybe if Europe says everything is okay and we all believe them. That might do it. There may be some super earnings and guidance that says everything will be rosy forever. That would certainly do it as well.

We have to stick to the reality zone and the way that markets and indices usually trade. That means when we get up to this resistance point after a good, long run and we get more news out from the earnings season, we will figure out where things are. There will not be any more anticipation and excitement such. To paraphrase Mr. Spock in an episode of Star Trek: As illogical as it may seem, having is not as enjoyable as wanting. It is that anticipation that makes it so great and drives the markets higher. Once reality is all there, that is when people decide they know the story and things come back down. Combine that with a good move. Combine that with the peaks close at hand, and then you get a little more upside. Then you get some downside after that even if there is not any bad news out there.

We will use a little more upside to take some gain and lighten the positions up. Then we see the kind of test we get. Will it just be a test of the October high, a move back up, and then trading in that range? Or maybe a breakout? Or does it come back lower and bounce around in this upper range? I have several support lines drawn, and the market could bounce around in that as well. Then you have the other alternatives where it gets an ugly and goes back down. That would probably take something negative like really bad earnings guidance and some worsening economic data. Maybe something bad out of Europe, which would be the most likely scenario. That would hurt stocks. If they cannot get a deal that would push things back down and threaten the eurozone or actually break back into the eurozone where stocks were burning over the late summer.

We will see what we get. If I was a betting man, I would say we get this range trade for awhile and then whatever happens will happen. The market will tend to forecast what will happen well down the road in the economy. If there will be a problem in 2012, the market will start pricing it in before too long, particularly as bounces up to these old highs. They have a way of making you or breaking you. You will either hold up and do fine, range trade and then make a breakout, or that will be all she wrote. The cat expends all of its lives just clawing back to this level. And then boom. It is like a basketball game. The team gets way down and has to make a big run. It makes the run but cannot quite push over the other team. Then it is done. It takes a lot of energy to make that run, and if you cannot consummate it, you are usually cooked.

I still expect some upside, and we will make some money from it. We also see good plays still developing. If we trade in a range, those will continue to give us good plays. We will still get those stocks that set up in rounded bottoms and then make the breaks to the upside. You will get those even in a trading range. We will get to trade stocks both ways, all the while looking for the great ones to set up for possibly a breakout move.

I will see you on Monday with a full, post-expiration week of trade. We will see if we get more of a bump higher from the earnings. Have an outstanding weekend!

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2788.33
Resistance:
2796 is the February gap down point
2816 is the early April peak.
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak

Support:
2762 is the February low
2759 is the mid-May low
2754 is the recent October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 2659
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
The 50 day EMA at 2639
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2572 is the November 2-11 gap down point
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2546 is the early September 2011 gap down point
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2469 is the November 2010 low
2441 is the November 2011 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 intraday low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low
2123 is the August 2010 gap down point
2100 from the August 2010 lows

S&P 500: Closed at 1314.50
Resistance:
1318.51 is the May low
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1332 is the early March peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak is being challenged again
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the recent May 2011 peak

Support:
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1258
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
The 50 day EMA at 1255
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1090 is the early September 2010 gap up point
1040 from the August 2010 lows and May/June 2010 lows
1011 is the summer 2010 low

Dow: Closed at 12,623.98
Resistance:
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,876 is the May high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

Support:
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 12,118
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The 200 day SMA at 11,962
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low

Economic Calendar

January 17 - Tuesday
- Empire Manufacturing, January (8:30): 13.5 actual versus 10.0 expected, 8.2 prior (revised from 9.5)

January 18 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 01/14 (7:00): 23.1% actual versus +4.5% prior
- MBA Mortgage Purchas, 01/14 (7:00): +4.5% prior
- PPI, December (8:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
- Core PPI, December (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
- Net Long-Term TIC Fl, November (9:00): $59.8B actual versus $8.3B prior (revised from $4.8B)
- Industrial Production, December (9:15): 0.4% actual versus 0.5% expected, -0.3% prior (revised from -0.2%)
- Capacity Utilization, December (9:15): 78.1% actual versus 78.1% expected, 77.8% prior
- NAHB Housing Market Survey, January (10:00): 25 actual versus 21 expected, 21 prior

January 19 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 01/14 (8:30): 352K actual versus 385K expected, 402K prior (revised from 399K)
- Continuing Claims, 01/07 (8:30): 3432K actual versus 3600K expected, 3647K prior (revised from 3628K)
- Core CPI, December (8:30): 0.0% prior
- CPI, December (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
- Core CPI, December (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
- CPI, December (8:30): 0.2% prior
- Housing Starts, December (8:30): 657K actual versus 673K expected, 685K prior
- Building Permits, December (8:30): 679K actual versus 680K expected, 680K prior (revised from 681K)
- Philadelphia Fed, January (10:00): 7.3 actual versus 10.0 expected, 6.8 prior (revised from 10.3)
- Crude Inventories, 01/14 (11:00): -3.438M actual versus 4.958M prior

January 20 - Friday
- Existing Home Sales, December (10:00): +5.0%; 4.61M actual versus 4.55M expected, 4.39M prior (revised from 4.42M)
- Distressed sales: 32%
- Investor sales: 21%
- Cash sales: 34%
- Prices: -2.5% year/year

January 25 - Wednesday
- MBA Mortgage Index, 01/21 (7:00): 23.1% prior
- Pending Home Sales, December (10:00): -3.0% expected, 7.3% prior
- FHFA Housing Price Index, November (10:00): -0.2% prior
- Crude Inventories, 01/21 (10:30): -3.438M prior
- FOMC Rate Decision, January (24:30): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

January 26 - Thursday
- Initial Claims, 01/21 (8:30): 375K expected, 352K prior
- Continuing Claims, 01/14 (8:30): 3550K expected, 3432K prior
- Durable Orders, December (8:30): 2.0% expected, 3.7% prior (revised from 3.8%)
- Durable Orders -ex Autos, December (8:30): 0.7% expected, 0.3% prior
- New Home Sales, December (10:00): 322K expected, 315K prior
- Leading Indicators, December (10:00): 0.7% expected, 0.5% prior

January 27 - Friday
- Chain Deflator-Adv., Q4 (8:30): 2.6% prior
- GDP-Adv., Q4 (8:30): 3.1% expected, 1.8% prior
- Chain Deflator-Adv., Q4 (8:30): 1.5% expected, 2.6% prior
- Michigan Sentiment - Final, January (9:55): 74.2 expected, 74.0 prior