Biotech Values

[iwfal]

ONTY -

In truth, he [Kirkman - the CEO] will be disappointed if this should happen. Failure of Stimuvax to hit the success threshold in the second interim analysis would further narrow the window for the best-case scenario in which Stimuvax shows extraordinarily strong efficacy.

In the same interview he also prognosticated that if this interim was a bust that they would get to the final before the end of the year. Fat chance of this given that to get from 50% event fraction to 75% event fraction is taking >15 months or so.

Couldn't ask for clearer proof that many small biotechs really haven't a clue when it comes to clinical trial design/prediction - e.g. typically not accounting for either:

a) What the end of enrollment does to an event rate driven by an exponential curve.

b) The general slowing of events as the tail of the curve comes into play.

PS I wouldn't label this a 'white lie' even if I had picked it in the Charity Contest -g-

PPS Speaking of charity contest, I coin flipped ACHN or IDIX. Bummed I went against the advice of a guru I consulted (who suggested IDIX as the better play)