dvd, I understand the basic premise of your views - supply and demand. It makes sense, and is probably more fundamentally sound than T/A itself.
If you take a more macro view, the demand is increasing through retirement account proliferation, market participation, wealth accumulation by boomers who think they're going to live forever, etc. Add in the lower supply and it makes sense.
As for the short interest levels, until we get a more timely reporting of that number, it's really hard to employ it to indices for short term trades, although it's often times real helpful on individual stocks when there are not problematic fundamental underpinnings. When a stock needs 8-days for the shorts to cover, for example, explosive moves can result. You know that already, of course.
Do you think a lot of the higher short sales are a result of the market being about 60% programmed trades? It would seem a logical conclusion, as programs just look for ways to make money as opposed to LTBH.