Zeev, The following link is to website of UCLA physicist who has developed model to predict SP500. Have you heard of him / his work ? Any comments on his model and prediction ? Thanks. <A HREF="http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp#prediction" target="_new">http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp#prediction</A>