Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

I’m not sure I agree that a slow and steady rise is more likely than an abrupt rise; several kinds of events could result in the latter:

1. FDA approval of generic Copaxone.

2. A partnership deal for M118.

3. A partnership deal for an FoB program.

4. A partnership deal for M402.

5. Formal FDA rejection of Teva’s Lovenox ANDA (unlikely, but possible).

6. A buyout offer at a large premium.

Because the timing of the above events is difficult to predict, I think the best approach to MNTA is to dispense with buying or selling options and to simply own the stock. However, simply being long the stock is apparently not exciting enough for some of the readers on this board. Regards, Dew

We finally get one (and another one becomes much less likely, specically the buyout). And once again those who sold volatility did not lose much if anything. Those who own the stock are ahead, and I think that they should continue to prosper, but those that collect premiums will probably continue to do better until (and if) mCop is approved (IMO). The other possibilities are such low probabilities that they are simply insignificant.

I would have thought that this deal would have produced a much bigger move, but I thought the same after the PI was entered. The options market has proved to much more inefficient than the underlying market. I, for one, will continue to play it. Those that continue to believe that it is not appropriate should continue to avoid it, but they should acknowledge that they have been wrong both about timing and results so far - of course things can change quickly, which those of us that are long hope for too.