Apple Inc (AAPL)

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AAPL: Morgan Stanley Survey Sees Higher-Than-Expected iPhone Demand

DECEMBER 15, 2011, 9:51 AM ET

By Tiernan Ray

Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty this morning writes that a survey the firm conducted just after Thanksgiving among 1,000 U.S. consumers aged 18 or older suggests that demand for Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone was stronger than expected this quarter, and may increase in Q1, suggesting estimates for the device may be too low.

Shipments by Apple of the iPhone this quarter may be as high as 36 million, writes Huberty, better than the 30 million she has been estimating. That 30 million estimate is about the same as I’ve seen from numerous recent research reports by Huberty’s peers on the Street.

Huberty’s been modeling iPhone demand to subside somewhat and push down shipments by 7% in Q1, but they might actually rise, based on the survey’s strong show of interest among respondents, perhaps totaling 41 million units worldwide.

As far as Apple’s iPad, demand seems to be still strong, with 27% of respondents saying they intend to buy one, versus only 8% having one today. Unit share will fall only slightly as a result of incursions by Amazon.com‘s (AMZN) “Kindle Fire” tablet, she believes, and if the iPad were to be cut by, say, $100, it would boost demand in the U.S. by an extra 100 million units.

Huberty estimates 190 million iPhone units may be sold in calendar year 2012, and 81 million iPad units.

Huberty maintains an Overweight rating on Apple shares and a $480 price target.