Tornado Alley (PROG)

[fuagf]

F6, "Each star marks a US military base, but just so we're all clear: Iran is threatening us;

we're not threatening them."



http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x2456137

see also .. bits and pieces ..

Gov. Rick Perry also stumbled badly in a campaign appearance in Iowa, telling supporters,
“If I am elected, I will find out where Iran’s nuclear weapons are. Also, where Iran is.”
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We have seen a member of the House Intelligence Committee who apparently didn't realize that we haven't had an embassy in Iran for the last 30 years, candidates who don't believe in evolution, and a candidate that didn't even know the voting age in the United States. Maybe Bush, Daniels, Christie, Barbour and Thune figured out ahead of time what Fairleigh Dickinson University uncovered just recently: that people who watch Fox News are actually more ignorant than people who watch no news at all. Could you imagine what they would have found had they studied people listening to talk radio? .. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=69793349

Stopping an Iranian bomb

By Stephen M. Walt Wednesday, November 16, 2011



In a thoughtful dissection of the seemingly endless debate on Iran's nuclear program (and the various proponents of military action), Andrew Sullivan says "For my part, I cannot see how we can prevent Iran from getting a nuclear bomb." Sullivan is no fan of military action, but I suspect his view is widespread. Some think the inevitability of Iran's getting the bomb is a reason to attack them now; for others, it is an argument for turning to robust containment. [ http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/11/what-will-the-iaea-report-on-iran-bring.html ]

I'm against the former and would favor the latter if necessary, but I do not think it is a foregone conclusion that Iran will actually go forward and acquire a nuclear weapons capability. In particular, I can think of two good reasons why a smart Iranian leader would not want to cross the nuclear threshold.

First, an Iranian nuclear weapons capability means that they will automatically be suspected if a nuclear detonation takes place anywhere in the world.

[...]

Second, and equally important, Iran has by far the greatest power potential of any country in the Persian Gulf. It has more people, more economic potential, and plenty of oil and gas too. If it ever had competent political leadership it would easily be the strongest conventional power in its neighborhood. But if it gets an overt nuclear capability, that act would raise the likelihood that other states in the region (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, even Iraq) would follow suit. It is far from certain that they would, but it would certainly make it more likely. And if they do, this step would partially negate Iran's conventional advantages. ..
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