Biotech Values

[iwfal]

You just did a bait & switch, which I presume was unintentional. In #msg-69353436 your time frame was 2017-2019 while in #msg-69353983 it is 2015. A difference of 2-4 years matters a lot in this discussion.

Agree I was treating 2015 and 2017-2018 as very similar. But OTOH to be strictly fair, I was using $40B for the came-off-patent biologics annual US revenue which is probably not a 2015 number and is more like a 2017-18 number.

2010 US Sales of leading biologics estimated to be coming off patent by 2017/18:

Avastin - $2.5B
Remicade - $4.5B
Humira - ~$6B
Herceptin - $1.5B
Rituxan - $3B
Neulasta - 3B
Epogen - $2B
Enbrel - $2B

Total - $24.5B (approximate value of 2010 US sales)

Even if you add some growth (which seems unlikely to be stellar with some orals coming on the market in major indications), and add a few of the ones I 'missed' (e.g. I assume Aranesp is covered under additional patents and so is not expiring until >2018 - but don't know for sure) it would seem $40B in, say, 2017 is reasonable estimate. And, best case, $55B in a stretch. At 15% market share to non-sub generics that is still only about $8B - which I guesstimate to be about 10% of the total us generic market in 2017. A 'niche', and likely a highly competitive one - and thus looks odd to me to be causing such a ruckus.

Where do we disagree?