Trading with Jerry Olson

[Jerry Olson]

HERE'S LAST WEEKS NEWSLETTER TO THE TROOPS..WHILE THE MARKETS DID "NOT" BREAKOUT...WE STILL HAVE A BIT LEFT I THINK THIS COMING WEEK..OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK IS ALWAYS VOLATILE...WE HAVE CARPINO CYCLE LOWS THE 21ST THRU THE 23RD..THEN??? WE'LL SEE...GOOD LUCK ALL....

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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED JAN 12TH 2003
"SENTIMENT & SEASONALITY THE DYNAMIC DUO"

Hello my friends and trading buddies....It keeps getting colder and colder while the markets are getting hotter and hotter Hey everyone my E-A-G-L-E-S are heading for the NFC championship game right here in Philly next week...the City is going nuts..we did not go out last night to din din as usual, the wife wasn't too happy but I was NOT going out..period..I put my foot down hard!..hahahahahahaha..course it WILL cost me..no doubt about it...he he he...That kid Vick? ouch is he good...gees...Well so is my main man Donavan McNabb...happy to see him back and healthy...anyway we are all pumped here needless to say...GO EAGLES

Well folks I have looked at all the charts both Daily Candlesticks & Point & Figure and have come to the conclusion that if we breakout here this week we are going up in a big way..Even though I am in cash here and flat..I will get long in a hurry..The Sentiment changed on a dime 2 Thursday's ago when we had that outside day on the HD debacle/warning and we rallied up hard that day, and then on Friday, with an awful employment report that would have crashed this market 300 points before, we held hard and stayed the course...they could have rocked it lower but buyers are stepping up to the plate...The Seasonality is a BIG factor here ahead of earnings..We & the street are thinking corps are going to start reporting better visibility going forward...

We've had very very few warnings coming out so far, and a lot more upside pre announcements too...This week some of the BIG Boyz are announcing earnings...just to name a few...INTC--MSFT--IBM--QLGC---YHOO--COF(VBG)-EBAY--AMD--SUNW--JNPR--SYMC...So this will give us and the street all the ammunition for either taking this market up a lot higher or rolling it over and moving it down hard..It's time to put up or shut up. I love this time frame too, for me it seems with all that skepticism out there ahead of eps, I'm looking for a major breakout of all the indexes for the next 2-3 weeks...Test the top, the Dec 2nd top and either we explode thru it to my ultimate target 990/1000 SPX or we hit it and then begin to correct...The corporation numbers will tell the tale..

We do not need to guess here...WHAT IS....IS....THE CHARTS SAY WE GO HIGHER...and that's what I'm leaning toward...again I remind you all I am flat...with the exception of a very large position in KLIC & CORE HOLDINGS--INTC-MSFT-DELL-IBM...KLIC broke out on Friday on both the DCC and P&F charts..this was what we've all been waiting for..earnings are before the bell Jan 22nd..fingers X's...and forward guidance will be the key...I'd dearly love to see the Semi BP turn up soon..we are just 1.54% away from that event..and folks that would be a BIG time positive for the sector and the markets...I will try to do a position type trade in the SMH this week, looking for a test of top at 31 from right here...My stop loss would be a triple bottom break of 22...

OK LET'S CHECK OUT THE INDEXS...EVERY CHART IS IN A BULLISH PENNANT FORMATION HERE...

DJIA---RIGHT AT THE DOUBLE TOP(DT) AT 8800, 8850 THE B/O 9000 ANOTHER TOP AND THEN? 9050/910 THE BIG BIG B/O THERE..THE SHORTS WILL HAVE TO COVER OFF THAT 9100 B/O..I WANT TO REMIND YOU ALL THAT SHORT INTEREST LATE DEC EARLY JAN WAS AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS IN YEARS...8650 THE 3BXRVDOWN..8550 THE DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) BREAKDOWN AND 8400 THE BSL LINE..THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE...

COMPX/NAZ---IN A BULLISH CATAPULT FORMATION ON P&F. JUST A GREAT LOOKING CHART WITH A SOLID UPSIDE TARGET OF 1520 IN THE WORKS...1420 THE 3BXDN AND 1390 THE DB BK THAT WOULD TAKE US TO 1330..I LIKE IT UP ...

NDX---ANOTHER SUPER LOOKING CHART PATTERN HERE. BROKE OUT ON FRIDAY AT 1090 LOOKS LIKE IT'S HEADING FOR 1150 THE BIG TIME DEC 2ND TOP..THE SYMMETRICAL "LOOK" OF THIS CHART IS AWESOME..IT SAYS WE ARE GOING HIGHER AFTER A PERFECT TEST OF 980 HELD ON THIS CHART....1060 THE 3BXDN--1040 THE DB BREAKDOWN..

SOX---THIS INDEX IS GOING FULL STEAM AHEAD SO FAR...WE ARE RIGHT AT HEAVY RESISTANCE(R) AT THE DT AND THE BRL LINE..THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE ON P&F...USUALLY WE PULLBACK HARD OFF THIS MOVE...I THINK WE BREAKOUT AT 345 AND THEN BREAK THE BRL LINE AT 350 TOO BOOT..325 THE 3BXDN WITH 320 THE DB BREAK...BULLISH PERCENT OF THE SEMICONDUCTORS IS AT 52.46% UP FROM THE 47.54% BOTTOM...IT WILL REVERSE UP AT 54% WHICH IS JUST 1.54% AWAY..THIS WOULD BE AWESOME FOR THE LONG SIDE OF THE MARKETS THE SECTOR AND THE SEMIS WE KNOW AND LOVE TO TRADE...JUST AN ASIDE..THE RS VS THE SPX REVERSED BACK UP LAST WEEK ANOTHER POSITIVE FOR THE SECTOR.

BKX---GOSH THIS IS ONE EXPLOSION WAITING TO HAPPEN...HEAVY R AT 790/95, BUT 800 WOULD BREAK THIS INDEX OUT IN A BIG WAY DRAGGING EVEN THE DOW WITH IT..805 IS EVEN BETTER...775 THE 3BXRVDN..

BTK---STILL LAGGING ON P&F CHART AT THE 360 LEVEL...365/70 WOULD BE A GREAT B/O AREA...NOW ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC) WE BROKE THE DOWN CHANNEL ON FRIDAY TO THE UPSIDE WITH SOME VOLUME..THIS IS A FIRST POSITIVE SIGN HERE FOR THIS INDEX...I LIKE THE "POTENTIAL" MOVE HERE FOR MORE GAINS..

SPX---935 IS THE BREAKOUT AND A SOLID ONE AT THAT WATCH FOR IT..WE WOULD TEST THE 1ST TARGET AT 950...ANY MOVE ABOVE 965/970 WOULD BE AWESOME AND THEN HEAD FOR MY ULTIMATE TARGET OF 990/1000...900 IS THE 3BXRVDN..

VIX---HANGING BY A THREAD...26 IS THE DB BREAKDOWN WITH A POTENTIAL RUN TO 20..YES I SAID 20 AGAIN...30 IS THE 3BXRVUP...

VXN---BROKE DOWN LAST WEEK AT 42...WE COULD TEST 34 SOON IF THE MARKETS CONTINUE UP THIS WEEK..45 THE 3BXRVUP

SPH3--THE SPOOOS---A VERY TELLING CHART EVERYONE...EVERYTHING IS TURNING POSITIVE ALL TOGETHER..HIT DID BREAK A DT AT 932..BUT 936 WOULD KEEP IT MOVING UP.. 920 IS THE 3BXRVDN..904 THE DB BREAKDOWN..I LIKE IT HIGHER..

NQH3--NQ'S---BROKE THE DT AT 1090 LAST WEEK..1100 IS ANOTHER NAIL IN THE SHORTS...1150 DOABLE FAST...1060 THE 3BXRVDN, WITH 1040 THE DB BREAK..THESE ARE BOTH AT CRITICAL JUNCTURES..I AM TALKING ABOUT BOTH FUTURES CHARTS..YOU HAVE THE NUMBERS..DON'T FIGHT THE TREND...IT CAN AND WILL GO EITHER WAY...

WHAT WITH ALL THE INDEXS LINING UP FOR A BULL MOVE..WE NEED TO WATCH FOR A SIMULTANEOUS BREAKOUT OF ALL OF THEM THAT "COULD" EXPLODE THIS MARKET...I USE THE WORD "COULD" CAREFULLY...BUT I FULLY EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN...WE NEED SOLID EARNINGS REPORTS FROM THE BIG BOYZ AND THIS MARKET WILL FLY...

OK HERE'S OUR WATCH LIST OF STOCKS TO TRADE...THERE WILL BE EARNINGS PLAYS IN THIS MIX..

MSFT---IN A PENNANT FORMATION ON THE DCC..READY TO B/O HERE...THERE'S A DT AT 58 FOR R...SO WATCH IT THERE OBVIOUSLY 59 IS A NICE B/O FOR THIS STOCK...EPS THE 16TH...56.65 THE BTL---WITH ANY BREAK OF 58 HOLD ALL LONGS THERE...55.10 THE SST...

IBM---I WROTE ABOUT IBM LAST SUNDAY AT 80/81 MENTIONED TO BUY THE 75 CALLS..IT HIT 88 LAST WEEK RUNNING UP HARD AHEAD OF EPS ON THE 16TH...JUST UNREAL & AS EXPECTED TOO...88.50 THE BTL---90 IS THE DT B/O...I SAID IT COULD RUN TO 100...86.90 THE SST...

EBAY---PHENOMENAL B/O OFF THE TRIPLE TOP BUY AT 71...THIS WAS THE STRONGEST STOCK OF ALL I WATCH ON THE CHARTS...EPS ON THE 16TH,,,74.20 THE BTL---72.50 THE SST...

INTC---SO SO CHART HERE IN X'S AND MOVING UP...SO FAR..EPS ON THE 14TH...17.90 THE BTL---16.90 THE SST

QLGC---TRIPLE TOP B/O LAST WEEK AT 40 I TRADED THIS 3 TIMES FOR A TOTAL OF 3.50 POINTS...EPS ON THE 15TH..LOOKS NICE FOR MORE UPSIDE...43.10 THE BTL---41.75 THE SST...

YHOO---JUST A GREAT LOOKING DCC CHART..EPS ON THE 15TH...COULD BE POSTIVE FOR EBAY AND AMZN...THIS WEEK...20.55 THE BTL---19.45 THE SST...VERY NICE DAILY AND WEEKLY CHARTS HERE..

COF---NEEDLESS TO SAY WE KILLED THIS ONE ON FRIDAY I MADE 2 POINTS EASILY ON THAT TRADE ALONE...BROKE OUT AT 37 A SERIOUS HEAVY R AREA AND EXPLODED...WHAT WITH THE BKX HERE HOVERING AT B/O LEVELS.. THIS ONE COULD GO MUCH HIGHER..MARKET WILLING...IT ALSO BROKE THRU THE BRL LINE TOO...EPS ON THE 16TH SO CAREFUL WITH THAT I HAVE NO CLUE ON THE TA HERE ON THIS STOCK NONE!!!...IT'S AT SOME R HERE AT THE 200 EMA DCC...39.65 THE BTL...38.20 THE SST...

SYMC---IN A BULLISH TRIANGLE OR FLAG HERE BASING AT THE HIGHS...VERY BULLISH LOOK TO THIS CHART FOLKS...47 THE BTL--I'LL TAKE THAT TRADE...45.10 THE SST...THIS IS ONE NICE CHART PATTERN HERE HEADING INTO EPS ON THE 15TH...

CREE---MAYBE SETTING UP FOR A POP INTO AND PAST EARNINGS IF THEY REPORT GOOD...19.15 THE BTL WAIT FOR IT...17.85 THE SST...EPS ON THE 16TH...

LLTC---DCC CHART IS SHAPING UP...HEAVY R AT THE 200 EMA ON THE CANDLE CHART...31 IS THE BTL--I'LL TAKE THAT TRADE...35 WOULD BE THE TARGET MARKET WILLING...29.50 THE SST...EPS ON THE 14TH...

DNA---IN A BULLISH TRIANGLE ON P&F...MIGHT BE A GOOD OPTION TRADE AFTER EPS ON THE 15TH..PLAYS A BIG PART OF THE BBH...I LIKE THE CHART...36 THE BTL..I'LL TAKE IT..MOVES SLOW BUT JUST HAVE PATIENCE...34.70 THE SST...

GE---EPS BEFORE THE BELL ON FRIDAY..CAREFUL WITH THIS ONE..IT'S IN A TIGHT TRIANGLE...26.05 THE BTL---25.20 THE SST...THIS IS A BELLWETHER STOCK LIKE MSFT--IBM & INTC...

ELX---EPS ON THE 16TH AND IT'S BEEN RALLYING LAST WEEK AHEAD OF THAT DATE...26.55 THE BTL...I'LL TAKE THAT TRADE...24.30 THE SST...

CYMI---ALREADY BROKE A DT AT 39..I LOVE TO TRADE THIS ONE IT'S VERY PREDICTABLE...39.50 THE BTL---38.10 THE SST...

QCOM---FINALLY TRYING HERE TO BREAKOUT...39.10 THE BTL..I'LL TAKE THAT TRADE FOR SURE...40 THE DT BREAKOUT ON P&F...37.60 THE SST...SO FAR HELD THE BSL LINE AND THE DB AT 36...SO FAR<G>

GNSS---DOJI TOP ON THURS..HANGING MAN FRIDAY..BETTER MOVE UP FAST OR IT'S IN TROUBLE...17.70 THE BTL---16.40 THE SST...

AMGN---THIS ONE IS ABOUT TO REVERSE UP I THINK...51 THE BTL I'LL TAKE IT LONG...49.70 THE SST...IT NEEDS TO GET SOME RESPECT..MAYBE THE EPS OF DNA WILL SPIKE THE SECTOR...MAYBE NOT..HAHAHAHAHAHA

BRCM---STILL IN X'S AND MOVING HIGHER...PRE ANNOUNCED GOOD STUFF IF MEMORY SERVES ME..BUT DON'T BET ON THAT FOLKS<G>......20.20 THE BTL...18.80 THE SST...

MERQ---BIG BREAKOUT ON THE WEEKLY CHART..BIG...NOT A LOT OF SELLERS HERE FOLKS...38.40 THE BTL..I'LL TAKE IT...37.20 THE SST...

XLNX---4 CONSECUTIVE BUY SIGNALS SO FAR CHART LOOKS GREAT...IN A PENNANT ON THE DCC CHART TOO BOOT..LOOKS AWESOME HERE...INTC'S REPORT THIS WEEK IF IT'S GOOD SHOULD HELP "ALL" THE SEMIS...26.45 THE BTL---25.15 THE SST...

OK EVERYONE THAT'S IT FOR THIS WEEK...AND WHAT A WEEK IT WILL BE...EARNINGS IN EARNEST...I LOVE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR..GUIDANCE WILL BE OF THE UTMOST IMPORTANCE OF COURSE...SO EVERYONE STAY ALERT..AND SET ALERTS BOTH WAYS ANYTHING CAN AND USUALLY DOES HAPPEN..OH YES, IT'S OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK TOO..SO THAT WILL ADD TO THE VOLATILITY...

WE MUST IDENTIFY SYMPATHY PLAYS AS OTHER STOCKS REPORT THEIR EPS THIS WEEK AS COLLATERAL EFFECTS WILL HAPPEN...EVERYONE IN THE ROOM HAS TO BE HELPFUL AND MINDFUL OF THIS EVENT...

GOOD LUCK ALL

REGARDS

JERRY

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SOME SHORT HAND FOR YOU NEW FOLKS

BTL=BUY TRIGGER LONG

SST=SHORT SALE TRIGGER

R=RESISTANCE

O/H=OVERHEAD

DT=DOUBLE TOP

DB=DOUBLE BOTTOM

BRL=BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE..A DOWNTRENDLINE ON THE DAILY P&F CHART

BSL=THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE THE UPTRENDLINE ON P&F..

S=SUPPORT

DCC=DAILY CANDLE CHART

B/O=BREAKOUT

OK GOOD LUCK...NEXT WEEK....AND SEND ME FEEDBACK ON THE ROOM...









jerry olson
www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com
[e-mail]


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