Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[chainik]

Mlsoft, what do you think about this timing scenario from Fleck? I week ago I was planning to hold my shorts regardless of what happens in Iraq (at that time I thought that the war premium built into the market was small).

A strong and fast decline into the end of January (which seems likely now) will probably increase a chance of substantial Iraq-related rally (which I'll short - with pleasure).

<If the market starts to rally on the commencement of war, my guess is that bad news might quickly be forgotten and people will turn to second-half stories -- never mind that they won't be there. A pretty wild rally could come down the road in late January or early February. It would be heralded as a new bull market once again, before turning out to be just another failed rally. I realize I am getting ahead of myself, but this is a setup to note that I will probably cover a good deal of my shorts in the next month or so, as per the plan I laid out in the beginning of the year. This is not to say that anyone should follow what I do, or do what I do. I just want to make my thinkingclear. Of course, I may have to change my mind more than once, as events unfold>