Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

I think you make a few dangerous assumptions:

[Ponatinib] sales of $500m in a few years are essentially a lock…

What if something strikes out of the blue, such as what happened to Tysabri in 2005? Tallying future pharmaceutical sales of any kind as a lock is unwise, IMO.

The generic filing on Sprycel I view as noise.

How can you say this when no one has even seen the Paragraph-IV pleadings yet? Generic Sprycel would certainly put some additional pressure on Ponatinib in the second-line setting, although we can argue about the magnitude of the effect.

Cancer treatment is not like high cholesterol - managed care can encourage the use of Gleevec, but they can't require it.

Says who? Reimbursement policy for expensive cancer drugs is in flux and could easily become more restrictive—perhaps substantially so—by the time Ponatinib is on the US market.