It seems that you have doubt as to how soon oil will be hit in Belize. For the Longs, the question of when is far less important than if.
I see no reason for the question of "if" to be in doubt at this point anymore than it was when drilling commenced. If Treaty had those type of doubts, wouldn't Reid want to sell some of his personally owned 14 million shares (at the very least some of the 750k shares he bought on the open market since July)?