Sunday, July 03, 2005 12:43:21 PM
Re: Dan, care to revise your prediction (#reply-21348179), which was made before you got giddy over "$10 billion in damages before punitive"?
Nope, I don't. AMD's ASPs have been about half Intel's leading to CPU revenues that are about half what they would have been absent illegal actions by Intel. At $2 Billion per year for the past 5 years (it's acutally higher, but I'm being conservative), AMD's CPU revenues have been about $10 Billion (note that if AMD can show that it had capacity to produce more chips at any time during this period, they can claim higher potential revenues). Had AMD's ASPs been the same as Intel's (a reasonable expectation for very similar products) AMD would have received more than $10 Billion in additional revenue (at zero additional cost) - these are direct damages.
Now add in interest, then triple damages as is required by law for such cases and you get a base judgment of well over $30 Billion before punitive damages. I expect that the final award will be cut back substantially on appeal (they always are - this is something that the "our legal system is out of control" people never mention) to a little less than the direct damages - something like $8 Billion to $10 Billion that Intel will wind up paying to AMD in cash.
Nope, I don't. AMD's ASPs have been about half Intel's leading to CPU revenues that are about half what they would have been absent illegal actions by Intel. At $2 Billion per year for the past 5 years (it's acutally higher, but I'm being conservative), AMD's CPU revenues have been about $10 Billion (note that if AMD can show that it had capacity to produce more chips at any time during this period, they can claim higher potential revenues). Had AMD's ASPs been the same as Intel's (a reasonable expectation for very similar products) AMD would have received more than $10 Billion in additional revenue (at zero additional cost) - these are direct damages.
Now add in interest, then triple damages as is required by law for such cases and you get a base judgment of well over $30 Billion before punitive damages. I expect that the final award will be cut back substantially on appeal (they always are - this is something that the "our legal system is out of control" people never mention) to a little less than the direct damages - something like $8 Billion to $10 Billion that Intel will wind up paying to AMD in cash.
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