Biotech Values

[iwfal]

BTW - A good rule of thumb for cancer OS is that the trigger will be 'expected' at:

End-of-enrollment + (2*Expected Median Survival)*1.1

This works because:

a) Most trials are back end loaded for enrollment

b) Survival curves are generally exponential - so going from no one evented to 50% evented (median) takes the same time as 1/2 of the remaining eventing (which is 75% evented).

c) The 1.1 factor accounts for several things like - the trial isn't completely back end loaded and there will be some lost to followup and there is some delay in reporting.

NOTE: Similar ROTs can be developed for PFS etc - but the factors will be different because the trigger is different and the LTFU is different and ... .