Catalyst Pharmaceutical Partners (CPRX)

[DonShimoda]

Your second analysis is equally as flawed because you mistakenly used the same (10%) volatility assumption for both ARIA and CPRX. fwiw, the market is currently pricing the ARIA option with a 60% implied volatility. If you actually run the black-scholes model using a 60% vix you'll come out at $4.50 which is basically where the last trade was done. The model is only as good as the inputs - basically garbage in, garbage out.

although I didn't calculate the value of the warrants conventionally, a second look led me to essentially the same result.

Oh, so even though your initial calculation was completely wrong, somehow you are right any way. whatever.