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Re: tony111 post# 129578

Thursday, 10/27/2011 11:37:39 AM

Thursday, October 27, 2011 11:37:39 AM

Post# of 257269

If SNY could take 75 percent of the market they would have launched an AG last year instead of splitting he market with NVS



Powerful point. If you take someone's reporting of FTC study of avg price drop upon entry of AG into market of only about 5 pct then you'd expect Sanofi to enter the market anytime they thought they could get a total of greater than about 57% market share. So they would have entered the market long ago if they had expectations of driving mL to under 43% of total market.


Note that I did not game the answer to match the WAG I gave earlier. I just did straight math of Sanofi expected profit given 5% reduction in price, associated decrease in GM, and market share.

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