Biotech Values

[iwfal]

If a company splattered its drug across 10 indications and cherry-picked the one trial where the drug did something, then statistically you can invalidate that result and be very skeptical. If a company ran few trials for one indication and kept going based on consistently good results in that narrow path, the bias is much, much smaller.

Generally in the real world there are almost none of the second category of companies/drugs - because by the time they have two successes they are done with trials (aka approved by the FDA). The closest you generally see is a company with a hit in ph ii on their pre-specified primary endpoint. Sounds good, right. But even most of these fail in the subsequent ph iii because the incidence of good drugs is sooo low and the false positive rate is so high.